Finance

UK short-term inflation expectations rise, Citi and YouGov say

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on July 25, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: January 22, 2026

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UK short-term inflation expectations rise, Citi and YouGov say
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LONDON (Reuters) -The British public's inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose in July and remained high over the longer term despite a slight dip from June, according to a survey published

UK Inflation Expectations Increase Slightly, Says Citi and YouGov Survey

LONDON (Reuters) -The British public's inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose in July and remained high over the longer term despite a slight dip from June, according to a survey published on Friday by bank Citi and opinion poll firm YouGov.

Expectations for inflation over the coming year edged up to 4% from June's reading of 3.9%, the survey showed.

Expectations for 5-10 years ahead fell to 4.2%, down from June's 4.3% but only back to a level they touched in May.

Citi economist Callum McLaren-Stewart said the stubbornly high longer-term expectations were likely to add to concerns among some Bank of England interest rate-setters.

"We infer little in the way of dovish signal from this month’s Citi/YouGov survey and think this data series will continue to lean hawkish in the view of the MPC," McLaren-Stewart said.

The BoE is widely expected to cut rates on August 7 as some Monetary Policy Committee members worry about a slowdown in the labour market. However, many analysts expect the BoE to continue with its gradual pace of cuts to borrowing costs due to inflation pressures lingering in Britain's economy.

Official data published earlier this month showed British consumer price inflation rose to 3.6% in the 12 months to June from 3.4% in May - well above the BoE's 2% target.

(Reporting by Muvija M; Writing by William Schomberg)

Key Takeaways

  • UK inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 4%.
  • Long-term inflation expectations remain high at 4.2%.
  • Bank of England faces pressure due to inflation concerns.
  • BoE expected to cut rates despite inflation pressures.
  • Consumer price inflation rose to 3.6% in June.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current short-term inflation expectations in the UK?
Expectations for inflation over the coming year edged up to 4% from June's reading of 3.9%.
How do long-term inflation expectations compare to short-term?
Expectations for 5-10 years ahead fell to 4.2%, down from June's 4.3%, indicating a slight decrease.
What concerns do Bank of England interest rate-setters have?
The stubbornly high longer-term inflation expectations are likely to add to concerns among some Bank of England interest rate-setters.
What is the expected action from the Bank of England regarding interest rates?
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates on August 7 due to concerns about a slowdown in the labour market.
How did consumer price inflation change recently in the UK?
Official data showed British consumer price inflation rose to 3.6% in the 12 months to June, up from 3.4% in May.

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