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BNP Paribas expects half a percentage point of ECB hikes in 2026

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 26, 2025

1 min read

· Last updated: January 24, 2026

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BNP Paribas expects half a percentage point of ECB hikes in 2026
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LONDON (Reuters) - BNP Paribas expects the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by half a percentage point next year as fiscal stimulus boosts price pressures, it said on Wednesday. The French

BNP Paribas Predicts ECB Interest Rate Hikes for 2026

LONDON (Reuters) - BNP Paribas expects the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by half a percentage point next year as fiscal stimulus boosts price pressures, it said on Wednesday.

The French bank said it had revised up its euro zone growth forecasts by 0.4 percentage points to 1.3% this year and 0.5 percentage points to 1.5% in 2026 due to higher defence and infrastructure spending.

It still expects the ECB to cut its policy rate to 2% in June.

(Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli; editing by Alun John)

Key Takeaways

  • BNP Paribas expects ECB to hike rates by 0.5% in 2026.
  • Euro zone growth forecast revised up to 1.5% for 2026.
  • Increased defence and infrastructure spending cited.
  • ECB policy rate expected to cut to 2% by June.
  • Fiscal stimulus seen as boosting price pressures.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main topic?
The article discusses BNP Paribas's forecast of ECB interest rate hikes in 2026 due to fiscal stimulus and euro zone growth.
What are the growth forecasts?
BNP Paribas revised euro zone growth forecasts to 1.3% for this year and 1.5% for 2026.
What factors influence the rate hike prediction?
The prediction is influenced by fiscal stimulus, increased defence, and infrastructure spending.

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