Finance

Euro zone consumers lower near-term inflation expectations, ECB survey shows

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on February 28, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: March 1, 2026

Add as preferred source on Google
Euro zone consumers lower near-term inflation expectations, ECB survey shows
Global Banking & Finance Awards 2026 — Call for Entries

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers lowered their near-term inflation expectations last month but continued to see economic contraction ahead, indicating that households remain relatively

Euro Zone Consumers Reduce Short-Term Inflation Expectations, ECB Survey Reveals

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers lowered their near-term inflation expectations last month but continued to see economic contraction ahead, indicating that households remain relatively downbeat on the bloc's prospects, an ECB survey showed on Friday.

Median inflation expectations over the next 12 months eased to 2.6% in January from 2.8% in the previous month while expectations three years out remained unchanged at 2.4%, above the ECB's own 2% target, according to the European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey.

The drop came as households lowered their nominal income growth expectation to 0.9% from 1.1%, indicating that families anticipate a drop in their inflation-adjusted earnings, which would then be a drag on growth.

The muted figures add to the case for more interest rate cuts from the ECB, and a move next Thursday is seen as largely a done deal with the debate already focusing on how much more the ECB would have to do in subsequent months.

Investors now anticipate between two and three cuts after the March 7 move, with bets oscillating mostly in response to news out of Washington on trade policy.

Although consumers were less pessimistic on growth, they continued to see the economy shrinking by 1.1% in the next year after predicting a 1.3% contraction in December.

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; editing by Mark Heinrich)

Key Takeaways

  • Euro zone consumers reduced short-term inflation expectations.
  • Inflation expectations for the next 12 months dropped to 2.6%.
  • Economic contraction is still anticipated by consumers.
  • ECB may consider further interest rate cuts.
  • Investors expect multiple rate cuts following the March decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Euro zone consumers lower their inflation expectations to?
Median inflation expectations over the next 12 months eased to 2.6% in January from 2.8% in the previous month.
What is the anticipated economic contraction for the Euro zone?
Consumers predict the economy will shrink by 1.1% in the next year, down from a previous prediction of a 1.3% contraction.
What impact do the inflation expectations have on ECB's interest rate decisions?
The muted inflation figures add to the case for more interest rate cuts from the ECB, with a move next Thursday seen as largely a done deal.
How have households adjusted their income growth expectations?
Households lowered their nominal income growth expectation to 0.9% from 1.1%, indicating a drop in their inflation-adjusted earnings.
What are investors anticipating regarding future interest rate cuts?
Investors now anticipate between two and three cuts after the March 7 move, with expectations fluctuating based on trade policy news from Washington.

Tags

Related Articles

More from Finance

Explore more articles in the Finance category