Finance

US tariffs would eat up German growth this year and next, Bundesbank chief says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on July 17, 2025

1 min read

· Last updated: January 22, 2026

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US tariffs would eat up German growth this year and next, Bundesbank chief says
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By Maria Martinez DURBAN, South Africa (Reuters) -The Bundebank expects growth of 0.7% in Germany in 2026 but this could be eaten up if U.S. tariffs of 30% threatened by President Donald Trump were

US Tariffs Could Negatively Impact German Economic Growth, Says Bundesbank

By Maria Martinez

DURBAN, South Africa (Reuters) -The Bundebank expects growth of 0.7% in Germany in 2026 but this could be eaten up if U.S. tariffs of 30% threatened by President Donald Trump were implemented, the central bank's President Joachim Nagel told Reuters in an interview.

"If tariffs materialise in August, a recession in Germany in 2025 cannot be ruled out," Nagel said in Durban, South Africa, where the meeting of G20 finance chiefs is taking place on Thursday and Friday.

The 30% tariff on European goods threatened by Trump would, if implemented, be a game-changer for Europe, wiping out whole chunks of transatlantic commerce and forcing a rethink of its export-led economic model.

"The outlook for the German economy has just improved, especially due to the fiscal program that has been announced and is now being implemented by the German federal government, which also sets the right accents: investments in infrastructure, in future technologies," Nagel said. "But this uncertainty could significantly weaken a positive outlook."

(Writing by Maria MartinezEditing by Madeline Chambers)

Key Takeaways

  • US tariffs could negate German growth in 2026.
  • Bundesbank warns of potential recession in 2025.
  • 30% tariffs on European goods could disrupt commerce.
  • German fiscal programs aim to boost economy.
  • Uncertainty from tariffs weakens economic outlook.

Frequently Asked Questions

What growth does the Bundesbank expect for Germany in 2026?
The Bundesbank expects growth of 0.7% in Germany in 2026.
What could happen if US tariffs are implemented?
If US tariffs of 30% materialize, a recession in Germany in 2025 cannot be ruled out.
How would US tariffs affect European commerce?
The 30% tariff threatened by Trump would be a game-changer for Europe, potentially wiping out significant portions of transatlantic commerce.
What recent developments have improved the outlook for the German economy?
The outlook for the German economy has improved due to a fiscal program announced and implemented by the German federal government.

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