Finance

Germany's fiscal expansion would boost GDP from 2026, DIW says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 14, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: January 24, 2026

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Germany's fiscal expansion would boost GDP from 2026, DIW says
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BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's planned 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund could raise economic output by an average of more than two percentage points per year over the next 10 years, Germany's DIW

Germany's fiscal expansion would boost GDP from 2026, DIW

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's planned 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund could raise economic output by an average of more than two percentage points per year over the next 10 years, Germany's DIW economic institute said on Friday.

German chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz was set to make a last-ditch attempt on Friday to convince the Greens of his plans for a massive increase in state borrowing to bolster defence and infrastructure.

DIW, one of Germany's main economic forecasters, cut its forecasts for Europe's largest economy on Friday for this year and next due to political uncertainty and global trade tensions.

Next year, gross domestic product will likely increase by 1.1%, down from the DIW's December forecast of 1.2%, the institute said. This forecast does not take into account defence and infrastructure expenditures.

If a defence and infrastructure spending ramp-up is included, growth of 2.1% is expected in 2026, DIW said.

The institute expects the economy to stagnate this year, revising its previous forecast for 0.2% growth.

In 2024, Germany became the only G7 country to post a contraction for two consecutive years.

The IfW institute revised up its 2026 estimate for Germany, predicting 1.5% growth off the back of the expected boom in public spending. Like the DIW, it also expects a stagnation this year.

(Reporting by Maria Martinez, Editing by Rachel More)

Key Takeaways

  • Germany plans a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund.
  • DIW predicts over 2% annual GDP growth from 2026.
  • Friedrich Merz seeks to increase state borrowing.
  • DIW revises GDP growth forecast to 1.1% for next year.
  • Germany faces economic stagnation this year.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the expected impact of Germany's infrastructure fund?
Germany's planned 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund could raise economic output by an average of more than two percentage points per year over the next 10 years.
What did DIW revise regarding Germany's GDP forecast?
DIW cut its forecasts for Germany's GDP growth for this year and next, predicting a likely increase of only 1.1% next year, down from a previous forecast of 1.2%.
How does the expected defence and infrastructure spending affect growth?
If defence and infrastructure spending is included, DIW expects growth of 2.1% in 2026.
What is the current economic situation in Germany according to DIW?
The institute expects the economy to stagnate this year, revising its previous forecast for 0.2% growth.
What did the IfW institute predict for Germany's growth?
The IfW institute revised its 2026 estimate for Germany, predicting 1.5% growth due to the anticipated boom in public spending.

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