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German engineering production to recover slightly in 2026, says lobby

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on September 16, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: January 21, 2026

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German engineering production to recover slightly in 2026, says lobby
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BERLIN (Reuters) -Germany's engineering companies expect production to recover only slightly next year from the pummelling that high costs, global uncertainty and a trade war are set to have on this

German Engineering Sector Anticipates Modest Recovery in 2026

BERLIN (Reuters) -Germany's engineering companies expect production to recover only slightly next year from the pummelling that high costs, global uncertainty and a trade war are set to have on this year's level, according to the VDMA sector lobby on Tuesday.

Production will grow by only 1.0% in 2026, said the VDMA, with the caveat that major reforms promised by the German government for this autumn actually take effect.

"However, there are considerable risks," said the VDMA, including a further intensification of trade conflicts, rising government debt and punitive tariffs on steel and aluminium.

Those factors led the VDMA to slash its 2025 outlook, with the German lobby now expecting a 5% production decline in real terms versus the 2% fall it had forecast earlier this year.

Tariffs have hit the industry hard, with several companies that work with metals stopping exports to the United States due to the risk entailed in documenting steel and aluminium origins.

"The EU must make it clear to the U.S. that our machines enable American production and export - and are therefore exempt from punitive tariffs," said VDMA president Bertram Kawlath.

In addition, the VDMA called on the German government to take a political response to China, the industry's largest global competitor, and create a strong domestic market, because "the wind is blowing ever harsher in our faces", he said.

(Reporting by Tom Kaeckenhoff and Miranda Murray, Editing by Rachel More)

Key Takeaways

  • German engineering production to grow by 1% in 2026.
  • VDMA cites trade conflicts and tariffs as major risks.
  • The 2025 outlook was revised to a 5% production decline.
  • VDMA urges German government to respond to China.
  • EU urged to negotiate tariff exemptions with the U.S.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the expected production growth for German engineering in 2026?
The VDMA expects production to grow by only 1.0% in 2026, contingent on major reforms promised by the German government.
What factors are contributing to the decline in production outlook?
Factors include high costs, global uncertainty, trade conflicts, rising government debt, and punitive tariffs on steel and aluminium.
How has the VDMA adjusted its outlook for 2025?
The VDMA has slashed its 2025 outlook, now expecting a 5% production decline in real terms, compared to the earlier forecast of a 2% fall.
What is the VDMA's stance on tariffs affecting the industry?
The VDMA president stated that the EU must clarify to the U.S. that European machines support American production and should be exempt from punitive tariffs.
What actions does the VDMA suggest for the German government?
The VDMA calls for a political response to China, the industry's largest competitor, and emphasizes the need to create a strong domestic market.

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