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German exports expected to fall 2.5% this year, says BGA trade lobby

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on September 11, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: January 22, 2026

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German exports expected to fall 2.5% this year, says BGA trade lobby
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By Maria Martinez BERLIN (Reuters) -German exports are expected to slump 2.5% this year as the sector faces "massive pressure" from weakening global demand, higher domestic costs and rising

German Exports Projected to Decline by 2.5% Amid Global Challenges

By Maria Martinez

BERLIN (Reuters) -German exports are expected to slump 2.5% this year as the sector faces "massive pressure" from weakening global demand, higher domestic costs and rising protectionism, the BGA trade association warned on Thursday.

Citing a new survey, BGA president Dirk Jandura said the group's foreign trade climate indicator remains deep in negative territory, with many firms reporting stagnant or falling sales.

"The situation remains fragile," Jandura said. "Foreign trade will remain the engine of our economy only if policymakers act decisively now."

The BGA also foresees imports jumping 4.5% in 2025.

Jandura pointed to trade tensions with the United States and China, higher tariffs, stricter supply chain rules and tighter export controls as factors eroding competitiveness and piling on costs.

Headwinds caused by U.S. tariffs were one factor behind leading German economic institutes' decision this month to trim growth forecasts for 2025 for Germany's export-reliant economy.

Jandura said many of the latest U.S. tariffs were so high that they made business "simply impossible" for some German exporters, effectively shutting them out of the U.S. market.

The U.S. was Germany's biggest trading partner in 2024 with two-way goods trade totalling 253 billion euros ($277.84 billion).

Nearly 60% of respondents said they were directly or indirectly negatively affected by the measures, said the BGA.

Additionally, 67% of the companies surveyed cited high extra costs from reporting requirements, which Jandura said were gradually destroying Europe's competitiveness.

(Reporting by Maria Martinez, Editing by Miranda Murray)

Key Takeaways

  • German exports are expected to decline by 2.5% in 2023.
  • BGA cites global demand and rising protectionism as key challenges.
  • Trade tensions with the U.S. and China are impacting competitiveness.
  • Imports are projected to increase by 4.5% in 2025.
  • High U.S. tariffs are affecting German exporters significantly.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the expected decline in German exports this year?
German exports are expected to slump by 2.5% this year due to massive pressure from weakening global demand and rising costs.
What factors are contributing to the decline in exports?
Factors include trade tensions with the U.S. and China, higher tariffs, stricter supply chain rules, and tighter export controls.
How have U.S. tariffs affected German exporters?
Many of the latest U.S. tariffs are so high that they have made business 'simply impossible' for some German exporters, effectively shutting them out of the U.S. market.
What does the BGA predict for imports in 2025?
The BGA forecasts imports will jump by 4.5% in 2025, indicating a shift in trade dynamics.
What percentage of companies reported being negatively affected by trade measures?
Nearly 60% of respondents indicated they were directly or indirectly negatively affected by the trade measures imposed.

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