(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Treasury yields and the dollar are down and most stocks a shade higher in Asia as investors wait to see if last gasp
Government Shutdown Talks: Market Reactions and Economic Implications
Market Reactions to Government Shutdown
(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
Impact on Treasury Yields and Dollar
Treasury yields and the dollar are down and most stocks a shade higher in Asia as investors wait to see if last gasp talks will prevent the U.S. government shutting from Wednesday.
Consequences for Federal Reserve Decisions
Expectations don't seem high for a deal when President Trump meets with the top Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress later on Monday, with both sides seeing political capital in letting the government close.
Trade Tariffs and Market Uncertainty
Analysts at BofA estimate a closure would cost 0.1% of GDP per week, but would be made up when it re-opens. Historically, such shutdowns have had little impact on financial markets, perhaps because investors assume public pressure will ultimately force a deal.
The timing is awkward for markets given that a closure would delay the September payrolls report due on Friday, and a protracted shutdown could leave the Federal Reserve flying blind when it meets on October 29. So far, markets assume that would not stop the Fed from easing, pricing in an 89% chance of a cut.
Wednesday is also when Trump's new tariffs on big trucks, patented drugs and other items are due to go into place, though there remains much confusion about what exactly will be covered or whether existing country deals will take precedent.
Reuters reported the Trump administration is considering imposing tariffs on foreign electronic devices based on the number of chips in each one, though again how that would work in practice is anyone's guess.
Trade partners must be wondering what's the point of doing deals with Trump when he can just slap new levies on anything out of the blue.
It's a busy week for Trump who on Tuesday is reportedly attending the meeting of top U.S. military brass suddenly called by Defense Secretary Hegseth last week.
"I want to tell the generals that we love them, they're cherished leaders, to be strong, be tough and be smart and be compassionate," Trump told Reuters in an interview, making the point of the meeting no clearer.
Social media is abuzz with theories, ranging from Hegseth wanting to extol the generals to follow a "warrior" culture, to him asking the military leaders to swear an oath to Trump personally. There's even talk the White House has decided to pull the U.S. military back from Europe and Asia to concentrate on the Americas alone.
Investors will be hoping nothing drastic happens this week to cloud the fourth quarter, which historically is a bullish one for equities. The Nasdaq, for instance, has on average returned gains of more than 6% in the December quarter. World stocks are already up 17% for the year, worth a cool $15 trillion. Gold and Chinese tech are the biggest winners, both up almost 40%.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
- EU consumer and business sentiment surveys, various EU countries report CPI for September
- ECB speakers include Madis Muller, Martins Kazaks, Piero Cipollone, Isabel Schnabel and Philip Lane.
- Fed speakers include Christopher Waller, Beth Hammack, John Williams, Alberto Musalem and Raphael Bostic
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes)
