Finance

US crude futures down $1 a barrel on Trump plan to boost fossil fuel output

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on January 20, 2025

3 min read

· Last updated: January 27, 2026

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Graph showing US crude futures decline following Trump's fossil fuel output plan - Global Banking & Finance Review
This image illustrates the recent drop in US crude futures prices, reflecting market reactions to President Trump's plan to boost fossil fuel output. It highlights the tension between supply and demand in the oil market.
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BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel in early Asian trading on Tuesday after President Donald Trump took office and announced a plan to maximise U.S. oil and gas

Oil Prices Drop Following Trump's Energy Emergency Declaration

By Shariq Khan

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency on his first day in office, raising concerns of higher U.S. output in a market widely expected to be oversupplied this year.

Brent crude futures settled down 86 cents, or 1.1%, at $79.29 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) for February delivery fell by $1.99, or 2.6%, to $75.89 in its final trading session.

More-actively traded March WTI contract fell 2% to settle at $75.83 a barrel. There was no settlement in the U.S. market on Monday due to a public holiday.

"End of the day, there is no shortage of oil out there," Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger said, noting that U.S. oil production is at record levels and the OPEC+ producer group still has some 5.86 million barrels per day of output curtailed.

"What there is a shortage of is demand," Yawger said. "If the refiner doesn't need to make more fuel, they're not going to buy the crude."

The oil market is expected to be oversupplied this year, after weak economic activity and energy transition efforts weighed heavily on demand in top-consuming nations the United States and China.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reiterated on Tuesday its expectations for oil prices to decline both this year and next.

"Strong global growth in production of petroleum and other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices," EIA economists wrote.

Trump also said he was thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico from Feb. 1, rather than on his first day in office as previously promised.

The delay helped ease concerns of an immediate tightening of the market among U.S. refiners, many of which are geared to process the type of crude oil supplied by these countries, Mizuho's Yawger said.

Oil's losses were also limited after the U.S. president said his administration would "probably" stop buying oil from Venezuela. The U.S. is the second-biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil after China.

Trump also promised to refill strategic reserves, although analysts questioned whether that would make any changes to oil demand.

"(It) will likely not change anything ... Biden was already refilling U.S. SPR at its maximum rate of 3 (million barrels) per month," SEB Research analyst Bjarne Schieldrop wrote, referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the nation's crude stockpile, designed as a buffer against supply shocks.

Also weighing on prices on Tuesday was the potential end to the shipping disruption in the Red Sea. Yemen's Houthis said on Monday they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.

(Reporting by Gabrielle Ng, Colleen Howe and Enes Tunagur; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Nia Williams)

Key Takeaways

  • US crude futures fell by $1 due to Trump's energy emergency declaration.
  • Brent crude futures decreased by 1.1% to $79.29 per barrel.
  • Market concerns over increased US oil output and oversupply.
  • Potential tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports delayed.
  • US may stop buying oil from Venezuela, affecting demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the drop in oil prices?
Oil prices fell after President Trump declared a national energy emergency, raising concerns about higher U.S. output.
What are the current trends in U.S. oil production?
U.S. oil production is at record levels, contributing to an oversupplied market amid weak demand.
How might tariffs affect oil imports?
Trump mentioned considering 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, which could tighten the market for U.S. refiners.
What is the outlook for oil prices according to the EIA?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects oil prices to decline both this year and next due to strong production and slower demand growth.
What geopolitical factors are affecting oil prices?
The potential end to shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and the U.S. decision to limit oil purchases from Venezuela are influencing market conditions.

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