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Spotify forecasts profit below estimate on high payroll taxes, shares sink

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on July 29, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: January 22, 2026

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Spotify forecasts profit below estimate on high payroll taxes, shares sink
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(Reuters) -Spotify forecast third-quarter profit below Street estimates on Tuesday as higher taxes related to employee salaries outweigh upbeat demand for its premium music-streaming plans. The

Spotify Projects Lower Profit Amid Rising Payroll Taxes, Shares Drop

Spotify's Financial Outlook

By Jaspreet Singh

Impact of Payroll Taxes

(Reuters) -Spotify forecast quarterly profit below estimate on Tuesday, as higher taxes related to employee salaries outweigh music streaming demand, sending its high-flying shares down 11%.

Revenue and Subscriber Growth

Investors are closely monitoring the Swedish company's profitability after price hikes and cost-cutting efforts in recent years helped it achieve its first annual profit for 2024.

Investments in Video Content

Spotify has also been expanding its library of video content to attract subscribers, a bet that has helped shares more than double in value in the past 12 months. But the higher stock price has led to a jump in payroll taxes linked to employee compensation, hampering profit.

Such taxes, called social charges, totaled 116 million euros ($133.62 million) in the second quarter. That caused Spotify to post a 42-cent-per-share loss, compared with a 1.33-euro profit a year ago.

The company signaled the trend would continue in the third quarter, forecasting an operating income of 485 million euros. That is below analysts' estimate of 562 million euros, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Spotify's revenue forecast of 4.2 billion euros was also below the estimate of 4.48 billion euros, while the monthly active users (MAU) projection of 710 million came in line with the estimate. Its prediction for a 5 million increase in premium subscribers to 281 million was above a Visible Alpha estimate of 279 million.

The company began investing in video podcasts in 2020 after buying podcast networks Gimlet Media and Anchor FM. Last year, it signed a new multi-year deal with podcaster Joe Rogan.

"We have now added more than 400,000 video podcasts ... more people are consuming video on the platform," CEO Daniel Ek told Reuters.

Spotify's premium subscribers rose 12% to 276 million in the second quarter, beating a Visible Alpha estimate of 273 million. MAU additions of 18 million brought the total to 696 million.

Revenue rose 10% to 4.19 billion euros, but missed the estimate of 4.26 billion euros due to an unfavorable currency impact of about 440 basis points.

($1 = 0.8681 euros)

(Reporting by Jaspreet Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai and Shilpi Majumdar)

Key Takeaways

  • Spotify forecasts lower profit due to rising payroll taxes.
  • Shares dropped 11% following the profit forecast announcement.
  • Revenue and subscriber growth remain key focus areas.
  • Investments in video content continue to attract subscribers.
  • Spotify's premium subscribers rose 12% in the second quarter.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Spotify's forecast for quarterly profit?
Spotify forecasted a quarterly profit below estimates, projecting an operating income of 485 million euros, which is lower than analysts' expectations of 562 million euros.
How did payroll taxes affect Spotify's earnings?
Higher payroll taxes, referred to as social charges, totaled 116 million euros in the second quarter, leading to a loss of 42 cents per share compared to a profit of 1.33 euros a year ago.
What is Spotify's revenue forecast for the upcoming quarter?
Spotify's revenue forecast for the upcoming quarter is 4.2 billion euros, which is below the analysts' estimate of 4.48 billion euros.
How many premium subscribers does Spotify have?
Spotify reported a 12% increase in premium subscribers, reaching 276 million in the second quarter, surpassing the Visible Alpha estimate of 273 million.
What investments has Spotify made in video content?
Spotify began investing in video podcasts in 2020, acquiring podcast networks like Gimlet Media and Anchor FM, and has since added over 400,000 video podcasts to its platform.

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