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EU gas demand set to fall by 7% by 2030, Ember report says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on June 16, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: January 23, 2026

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EU gas demand set to fall by 7% by 2030, Ember report says
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LONDON (Reuters) -Gas demand in the European Union is expected to fall by 7% by 2030 as renewable energy and electrification increase, a report by thinktank Ember showed on Tuesday. BY THE NUMBERS

EU Gas Demand Projected to Decrease by 7% by 2030, Ember Report

LONDON (Reuters) -Gas demand in the European Union is expected to fall by 7% by 2030 as renewable energy and electrification increase, a report by thinktank Ember showed on Tuesday.

BY THE NUMBERS

Ember analysed EU member states' national energy plans which showed gas demand is set to fall by 7% from 326 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2023 to 302 bcm in 2030. Gas demand has already dropped by 19% to 326 bcm in 2023 from 404 bcm in 2019. 

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

The long-term decline in gas demand is at odds with the EU's aim to increase liquefied natural gas import capacity by 54% by 2030 as part of plans to phase out Russian pipeline gas supply. 

This could result in over-supply with new gas infrastructuee investments at risk of becoming stranded assets, the report said.

CONTEXT

EU countries aim to double their total wind and solar capacity over the next five years so that renewable energy is on track to generate 66% of all EU electricity by 2030.

The share of electricity in EU final energy demand is expected to rise to 30% by 2030 from 23% currently.

KEY QUOTE 

"An electrified economy is where the EU is definitively heading, and any rush to overbuild gas infrastructure will inevitably end in costly stranded assets. Industry stakeholders, investors and policymakers should all take note," said Tomos Harrison, electricity transition analyst at Ember.

(Reporting by Nina Chestney; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )

Key Takeaways

  • EU gas demand projected to decrease by 7% by 2030.
  • Renewable energy and electrification are key factors.
  • Gas demand dropped 19% from 2019 to 2023.
  • Potential over-supply due to increased LNG capacity.
  • Risk of stranded assets with new gas infrastructure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected change in EU gas demand by 2030?
Gas demand in the European Union is expected to fall by 7% from 326 billion cubic metres in 2023 to 302 billion cubic metres by 2030.
Why is the decline in gas demand significant?
The long-term decline in gas demand contradicts the EU's goal to increase liquefied natural gas import capacity by 54% by 2030, potentially leading to over-supply.
What are the EU's renewable energy goals?
EU countries aim to double their total wind and solar capacity over the next five years, targeting renewable energy to generate 66% of all EU electricity by 2030.
What risks are associated with overbuilding gas infrastructure?
The report warns that a rush to overbuild gas infrastructure could result in costly stranded assets as the EU moves towards an electrified economy.
What is the expected share of electricity in EU final energy demand by 2030?
The share of electricity in EU final energy demand is projected to rise to 30% by 2030, up from 23% currently.

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