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Moody's maintains 'Ca' rating on Ukraine as effects of war continue

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 30, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: January 23, 2026

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Moody's maintains 'Ca' rating on Ukraine as effects of war continue
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(Reuters) -Credit ratings agency Moody's affirmed Ukraine's 'Ca' rating on Friday, citing the long-lasting impact of the war with Russia on its economy and finances, as well as uncertainties over

Moody's Affirms Ukraine's 'Ca' Rating Amid Ongoing War Challenges

(Reuters) -Credit ratings agency Moody's affirmed Ukraine's 'Ca' rating on Friday, citing the long-lasting impact of the war with Russia on its economy and finances, as well as uncertainties over peace negotiations with Moscow.

"Growth prospects remain subdued as challenging security conditions, labour shortages and attacks on energy infrastructure continue," Moody's said, maintaining its outlook for Ukraine at stable.

The ratings agency on its website defines 'Ca' rating obligations as "highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery in principal and interest".

On Friday, Ukraine's finance ministry said it would not be paying more than half a billion dollars due to holders of its GDP warrants, marking the first payment default since it created the instruments.

Kyiv also resisted U.S. and Russian pressure to commit to attending another round of peace talks on June 2, saying it first needed to see Russian proposals.

Ukraine's economy cratered after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, falling close to 30%. Although it staged modest growth in 2023 and 2024, its gross domestic product (GDP) remains below the pre-war level as it extensively restructures its debt.

Moody's forecast Ukraine's GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, adding that it expects economic growth to remain "subdued" in 2026 and 2027.

Rival ratings agency Fitch last week affirmed Ukraine's long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating at "Restricted Default", as the nation continues to navigate diplomatic tensions and a significant erosion of its finances.

(Reporting by Khusbu Jena and Unnamalai L in Bengaluru; Writing by Pushkala Aripaka; Editing by Vijay Kishore)

Key Takeaways

  • Moody's affirms Ukraine's 'Ca' rating due to war impact.
  • Ukraine's GDP growth forecasted to slow in coming years.
  • First payment default on GDP warrants reported.
  • Ukraine resists pressure for peace talks without proposals.
  • Fitch also affirms Ukraine's 'Restricted Default' rating.

Frequently Asked Questions

What rating did Moody's assign to Ukraine?
Moody's affirmed Ukraine's 'Ca' rating, indicating highly speculative obligations likely in or near default.
What are the economic conditions in Ukraine?
Ukraine's economy has faced significant challenges due to the war, with growth prospects remaining subdued due to security issues and labor shortages.
What is the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth?
Moody's forecasts Ukraine's GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, with subdued growth expected in the following years.
What recent financial decision did Ukraine's finance ministry make?
Ukraine's finance ministry announced it would not pay more than half a billion dollars to holders of its GDP warrants, marking its first payment default.
How has the war affected Ukraine's economy since 2022?
Since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine's economy has contracted by nearly 30%, although there was modest growth in 2023 and 2024.

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