Finance

ECB's Centeno: rate cuts below neutral level may be needed to keep inflation on target

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 21, 2025

1 min read

· Last updated: January 23, 2026

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ECB's Centeno: rate cuts below neutral level may be needed to keep inflation on target
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LISBON (Reuters) -The European Central Bank may need to cut its key interest rate below the neutral level of 1.5%-2% to prevent inflation from falling below its 2% target in a frail economic setting,

ECB May Need to Lower Interest Rates to Maintain Inflation Target

LISBON (Reuters) -The European Central Bank may need to cut its key interest rate below the neutral level of 1.5%-2% to prevent inflation from falling below its 2% target in a frail economic setting, ECB policymaker Mario Centeno told a news briefing on Wednesday.

"We cannot run the risk of having a monetary policy that puts the inflation rate below the target of 2%," he said after presenting the Bank of Portugal's financial stability report.

The ECB interest rate, "in order to be able to keep inflation at the target of 2%, may have to come below the natural rate", he added, estimating the latter to be in the range of 1.5% to 2%.

In the face of a more uncertain environment due to the global trade tensions, "we must maintain an increasingly predictable approach and not take steps that create more uncertainty", he said, without specifying if the ECB should cut its rates again at its next meeting in June.

(Reporting by Sergio Goncalves, editing by Andrei Khalip)

Key Takeaways

  • ECB may cut interest rates below the neutral level.
  • The goal is to maintain a 2% inflation target.
  • Mario Centeno emphasizes a predictable approach.
  • Global trade tensions contribute to economic uncertainty.
  • No specific rate cut decision for the next meeting.

Frequently Asked Questions

What might the ECB need to do to keep inflation on target?
The ECB may need to cut its key interest rate below the neutral level of 1.5%-2% to prevent inflation from falling below its 2% target.
What is the estimated neutral rate mentioned by Centeno?
Centeno estimates the neutral rate to be in the range of 1.5% to 2%.
Why is there a need for a predictable monetary policy?
In the face of global trade tensions, it's important to maintain a predictable approach to avoid creating more uncertainty.

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