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Trade war could cut euro zone inflation further, ECB scenarios show

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on June 5, 2025

1 min read

· Last updated: January 23, 2026

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Trade war could cut euro zone inflation further, ECB scenarios show
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FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The outcome of the global trade war could meaningfully alter the euro zone's inflation path, the European Central Bank said on Thursday as it outlined several scenarios to its

Global Trade War May Further Impact Euro Zone Inflation, ECB Warns

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The outcome of the global trade war could meaningfully alter the euro zone's inflation path, the European Central Bank said on Thursday as it outlined several scenarios to its central view.

In a mild scenario, inflation would average 1.7% next year, above the 1.6% projected by the bank while a severe scenario, which foresees a further increase in U.S. tariffs and retaliation by the EU, would cut inflation to 1.5% next year and 1.8% in 2027.

(Reporting by Balazs KoranyiEditing by Alexandra Hudson)

Key Takeaways

  • The global trade war may alter euro zone inflation.
  • ECB outlines scenarios predicting inflation changes.
  • Mild scenario sees inflation at 1.7% next year.
  • Severe scenario predicts inflation could drop to 1.5%.
  • US tariffs and EU retaliation are key factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

How could the trade war affect euro zone inflation?
The European Central Bank indicated that the global trade war could significantly alter the euro zone's inflation trajectory.
What is the ECB's mild scenario for inflation next year?
In a mild scenario, inflation is projected to average 1.7% next year, slightly above the ECB's previous estimate of 1.6%.
What does the severe scenario predict for inflation?
The severe scenario anticipates a further rise in U.S. tariffs and retaliation from the EU, which could lead to more pronounced inflation effects.

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