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German labour office fears 12-billion-euro shortfall by 2029 amid rising unemployment

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 30, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: March 1, 2026

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German labour office fears 12-billion-euro shortfall by 2029 amid rising unemployment
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BERLIN (Reuters) -Germany's labour office foresees a shortfall of 11.9 billion euros ($13.48 billion) by 2029 amid rising unemployment that may have to be plugged with government loans, the agency

Germany's Labour Office Predicts €12 Billion Shortfall by 2029

BERLIN (Reuters) -Germany's labour office foresees a shortfall of 11.9 billion euros ($13.48 billion) by 2029 amid rising unemployment that may have to be plugged with government loans, the agency said in a letter to parliamentary budget committee on Friday.

For this year alone, the agency anticipates a deficit of 5.27 billion euros that will use up its reserves of 3.2 billion euros, it said in the letter seen by Reuters.

"It would also require additional liquidity assistance from the federal government in the form of loans totalling almost 2.35 billion euros," the letter said, adding that another 3.8 billion euros would be required for 2026.

The calculations are based on April forecasts from the government that foresee economic stagnation this year, down from a previously forecast 0.3% growth rate.

An annual average of just under 1 million people are expected to receive unemployment benefits, according to the letter.

Economic malaise has put pressure on the job market even against a backdrop of long-term labour shortages, adding to pressure on conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has vowed to pull the economy out of a two-year decline.

Tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump could deal a major blow to those efforts - possibly putting the German economy on track for a third straight year of recession for the first time in the country's post-war history.

($1 = 0.8828 euros)

(Reporting by Holger Hansen, Writing by Friederike Heine, Editing by Rachel More)

Key Takeaways

  • Germany's labour office predicts a €12 billion shortfall by 2029.
  • Rising unemployment may necessitate government loans.
  • A €5.27 billion deficit is expected for this year alone.
  • Economic stagnation is impacting the German job market.
  • Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces pressure amid economic decline.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected financial shortfall by 2029?
Germany's labour office foresees a shortfall of 11.9 billion euros by 2029 amid rising unemployment.
What is the expected deficit for this year?
The agency anticipates a deficit of 5.27 billion euros for this year, which will deplete its reserves.
How many people are expected to receive unemployment benefits?
An annual average of just under 1 million people are expected to receive unemployment benefits.
What economic conditions are contributing to this shortfall?
Economic stagnation and long-term labour shortages are contributing to the rising unemployment and financial shortfall.
What assistance might the federal government provide?
The labour office indicated that additional liquidity assistance from the federal government in the form of loans may be necessary.

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