By Samia Nakhoul DUBAI, April 8 (Reuters) - Nearly six weeks of war in Iran have ended, for now, with President Donald Trump claiming victory, but the U.S.-Iran ceasefire locks in a harsh reality: an
As Trump claims victory, Iran emerges bruised but powerful with leverage over Hormuz
Iran’s Strategic Gains and the Shifting Balance in the Gulf
By Samia Nakhoul
DUBAI, April 8 (Reuters) - Nearly six weeks of war in Iran have ended, for now, with President Donald Trump claiming victory, but the U.S.-Iran ceasefire locks in a harsh reality: an entrenched, radical government with control over the Strait of Hormuz and a powerful lever over global energy markets and Gulf rivals, analysts say.
The shockwaves have rippled outward, contributing to global economic strains and bringing conflict to Gulf neighbours whose economies depend on stability.
The War’s Impact and Regional Repercussions
"This war will be remembered as Trump's grave strategic miscalculation. One whose consequences reshaped the region in unintended ways," Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges told Reuters.
Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Before the war, the Strait - a narrow passage carrying around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas - was formally treated as an international waterway. Iran monitored it, harassed shipping and intermittently intercepted vessels, but it stopped short of asserting outright control.
In the new reality, Tehran has moved from shadowing tankers to effectively dictating terms. It currently functions as the de facto gatekeeper of the shipping route, selectively deciding on passage and on what terms. Iran wants to charge ships for safe passage.
Iran’s Regional Influence and Domestic Resilience
Additionally, Iran has demonstrated resilience under sustained attack and retained the capacity to escalate further, projecting influence across multiple fronts and strategic choke points. Its reach extends through Lebanon and Iraq via Hezbollah and Shi’ite militias, and into the Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea, leveraging the sphere of influence of its Houthi allies.
At home, Iran's leadership remains firmly in control - even though the country's economy is in tatters and great swathes of infrastructure in ruins from American and Israeli bombs.
Unresolved Issues and U.S. Objectives
"What did the U.S.–Israeli war actually achieve?" asked Gerges. "Regime change in Tehran? No. The surrender of the Islamic Republic? No. Containment of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium? No. An end to Tehran’s support for its regional allies? No."
Iran has absorbed the blows while retaining - and in some cases strengthening - its core instruments of power, said four analysts and three Gulf government sources who spoke to Reuters for this story.
As well as Iran's control of Hormuz, the political picture now, they noted, is of a more brutal, empowered establishment, unaccounted nuclear material, continued missile and drone production, and ongoing support for regional militias.
Ceasefire and the Path Forward
Echoing Trump, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday said Washington had won a decisive military victory, and that Iran's missile programme had been functionally destroyed. Iran was still able to launch missiles prior to the ceasefire.
In response to requests for comment, the State Department and White House referred Reuters to a press briefing in which White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Trump's priority was reopening Hormuz without limitations, but she did not rule out a future in which Iran and the United States shared toll revenue.
The United States, Israel and Iran on Tuesday agreed to the two-week ceasefire and U.S. and Iranian officials are expected to hold talks from Friday to discuss a long-term settlement.
Challenges to Lasting Peace
While the ceasefire may halt the fighting, the Gulf officials said its durability hinges on addressing the deeper conflicts shaping the region’s security and energy landscape.
Any deal that falls short of a comprehensive settlement risks entrenching Iranian leverage rather than constraining it, they add.
Ebtesam Al‑Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center described the truce as a fragile pause - one likely to institutionalize new forms of instability unless it expands well beyond a narrow cessation of hostilities.
“This ceasefire is not a solution; it is a test of intentions,” Ketbi told Reuters. "If it does not evolve into a broader agreement redefining the rules of engagement - in Hormuz and across proxy theatres - it will amount to little more than a tactical pause before a more dangerous and complex escalation."
“If Trump reaches a deal with Iran without addressing core issues - ballistic missiles, drones, proxies, nuclear concerns, and the rules governing Hormuz - then the conflict is effectively left unresolved and the region exposed,” said Ketbi.
Hormuz: A Red Line for Gulf States
HORMUZ IS RED LINE FOR GULF COUNTRIES
Iran’s Negotiating Position
Iran, for its part, has put forward to Washington terms that include sanctions relief, recognition of enrichment rights, compensation for war damage and continued control over the Strait - underscoring just how far apart the sides remain.
Trump acknowledged receiving the Iranian plan and called it "a workable basis to negotiate".
Gulf States’ Concerns and Economic Stakes
For Gulf countries who rely on Hormuz to export their oil, the Strait remains a non-negotiable red line, added Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi. "Any outcome that leaves the waterway effectively in Iranian hands would be a defeat for President Trump", with the potential repercussions of high energy prices extending into the midterm elections, he said.
What the war may nonetheless open up for Tehran, Shihabi added, is the prospect of a negotiated settlement - potentially including sanctions relief.
From a Gulf perspective, the picture is deeply unsettling. Mistrust of Iran is running high following Tehran's strikes on energy facilities and commercial hubs across the region. More troubling still, the war has transformed Hormuz into an explicit instrument of leverage and coercion, analysts say.
The economic stakes are equally stark. Iran wants to charge fees for ships passing through the Hormuz shipping lanes as part of any permanent peace deal, a move that would reverberate far beyond the Gulf, hitting global energy markets and the economic lifelines of states along the opposite shore.
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