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Big banks add October cut to ECB forecasts

Published by Uma Rajagopal

Posted on October 1, 2024

2 min read

· Last updated: January 29, 2026

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Graph depicting ECB forecast rate cuts amid economic slowdown - Global Banking & Finance Review — This image illustrates the revised forecasts by major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, predicting a quarter-point rate cut by the ECB on October 17, 2024. It highlights economic challenges and slowing inflation in the Eurozone.

monetary policy European Central Bank interest rates financial markets economic growth

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LONDON (Reuters) -Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, now expect the European Central Bank to deliver a quarter-point cut at its Oct. 17 meeting, revising their forecasts on Friday on recent data showing economic weakness and slowing inflation. Market pricing now reflects around a 70% chance of such a rate cut, which would […]

Market pricing now reflects around a 70% chance of such a rate cut, which would follow reductions at the ECB ’s June and September meetings, as the data pushes policy makers to focus more on growth and less on price pressures.

Euro zone business activity contracted sharply and unexpectedly in September, surveys showed, as the bloc’s dominant services industry flatlined and a downturn in manufacturing accelerated, while inflation in France and Spain for September came in very soft.

Sources told Reuters that ECB policy doves are preparing to fight for an October rate cut – though this would likely meet resistance from more conservative peers – a turnaround from the aftermath of the ECB ’s September meeting when they saw an October move as unlikely.

Here are the latest forecasts from some brokerages.

Terminal

Brokerage Oct ’24 rate Dec ’24 rate/end ’25 forecast

cut estimate estimate (bps)

(bps)

Goldman 25 25 2.0% (June 2025)

Sachs

HSBC 25 25 2.25% (April 2025)

BNP 25 25 2.25% (end-2025

Paribas forecast)

RBC 25 25 2.25% (April 2025)

JPMorgan 25 25 2.0% (June 2025)

Barclays 25 25 2.00% (June 2025)

25 25 2.50%

TD (March 2025)

Securities

25 25 Close to

Jefferies 2.00% (end 2025)

Deutsche – 25 2.0%-2.5% (mid-2025)

Bank

Citi – 25 Likely

under 2%

UBS IB – 25 2.25% (end-2025

forecast)

ING – 25 2.25% (end 2025

forecast)

BBVA – 25 2.75% (November 2025)

SEB – 25 2.00% (end 2025)

(Reporting by EMEA markets team and the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Amanda Cooper)

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the European Central Bank?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank for the euro and administers monetary policy within the Eurozone, aiming to maintain price stability and support economic growth.

What are interest rates?

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money or the return on savings, expressed as a percentage. They are influenced by central banks and affect economic activity.

What is monetary policy?

Monetary policy refers to the actions taken by a central bank to manage the money supply and interest rates to achieve macroeconomic objectives such as controlling inflation and fostering economic growth.

What is economic growth?

Economic growth is the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, typically measured by the rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

What is inflation?

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. It is typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Big banks add October cut to ECB forecasts

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