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BP flags weaker oil trading while upstream output grows

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on October 14, 2025

3 min read

· Last updated: January 21, 2026

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BP flags weaker oil trading while upstream output grows
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LONDON (Reuters) -BP expects its upstream production to be above last quarter's, the company said in a trading update on Tuesday ahead of results due on November 4, adding that its oil trading result

BP Anticipates Increased Upstream Production Amid Weak Oil Trading

BP's Production and Trading Update

By Shadia Nasralla and Stephanie Kelly

Refining Margins and Financial Impact

LONDON (Reuters) -BP said it expects upstream production to rise in the third quarter, reversing earlier guidance for a slight decline, but flagged weak oil trading performance in a trading update ahead of results due on November 4.

Market Reactions and Price Trends

The oil major guided for both higher oil and gas output, particularly at its U.S. onshore fields. However, gas prices received were lower and gas trading was described as average.

Future Outlook and Impairments

Energy companies almost never give details of their trading results in order to protect their commercial advantage.

It had previously said it expected slightly lower upstream output than in the second quarter when it produced around 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

BP guided for a rise in its refining indicator margin to $15.8 per barrel in the quarter, versus $11.9 per barrel in the previous quarter.

REFINING MARGINS PROVIDE BOOST

The higher refining margins are set to add $300 million to $400 million to BP's results, although some of that will be countered by compliance costs and an unplanned outage at its U.S. Whiting refinery, which was hit by flooding.

BP's shares were down 1.5% at 0830 GMT compared with a 1.4% fall in a broader index of European energy companies.

"BP's 3Q25 trading statement sees the expected tailwinds from higher quarter-on-quarter margins and operational uptime in refining, but this is likely partly offset by weaker oil trading. We trim our estimates," Citi analysts said in a note.

Brent crude oil prices averaged $69.13 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $67.88 per barrel in the second quarter.

BP expects the prices it received in its gas and low carbon business to result in a $100 million hit compared with the previous three months.

U.S. gas prices averaged $3.07 per million British thermal units in the third quarter, compared with $3.44 per mmBtu in the second quarter, BP said.

Net debt is expected to be broadly flat compared with the previous quarter's $26 billion.

BP expects to write off around $181 million on oil exploration, according to Reuters calculations based on numbers released by BP on Tuesday and previously. It also sees total impairments across other business segments of between $200 million and $500 million in the third quarter.

(Reporting by Shadia Nasralla and Stephanie Kelly; Editing by Joe Bavier and Louise Heavens)

Key Takeaways

  • BP forecasts increased upstream production in Q3.
  • Weak oil trading performance flagged by BP.
  • Higher refining margins to boost financial results.
  • BP's shares fell amid broader energy market decline.
  • Expected impairments and financial impacts detailed.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is upstream production?
Upstream production refers to the processes involved in the exploration and extraction of oil and gas resources. It includes drilling and production activities in oil fields.
What is oil trading performance?
Oil trading performance refers to the effectiveness and profitability of buying and selling oil in the market. It can be influenced by various factors including supply and demand.
What are financial impacts in the oil industry?
Financial impacts in the oil industry refer to the effects that changes in oil prices, production levels, and trading performance have on a company's financial results.

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