Finance

UK inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, OBR forecasts

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on December 8, 2025

1 min read

· Last updated: January 20, 2026

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UK inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, OBR forecasts
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LONDON (Reuters) -British consumer price inflation is set to average 2.5% in 2026, according to estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility published on its website on Wednesday ahead of finance

UK Inflation Predicted to Average 2.5% by 2026, Says OBR

LONDON (Reuters) -British consumer price inflation is set to average 2.5% in 2026, according to estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility published on its website on Wednesday ahead of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget statement.

In March, when Reeves announced a half-yearly budget update, the OBR said it expected inflation of 2.1% in 2026, only slightly above the Bank of England's 2% target.

However, inflation in the 12 months to October stood a 3.6%.

The OBR upgraded its inflation forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%.

The country's budget watchdog expects price growth to return to the 2% in 2027, a year later than it forecast in March.

Official data, published last week, showed inflation cooled to 3.6% in annual terms in October, bolstering market expectations of a quarter-point cut in interest rates by the Bank of England in December.

(Reporting by David Milliken and Andy Bruce; writing by Suban Abdulla; editing by William James)

Key Takeaways

  • OBR forecasts UK inflation to average 2.5% in 2026.
  • Inflation in October was 3.6%, according to official data.
  • OBR revised 2025 inflation forecast to 3.5%.
  • Bank of England may cut interest rates in December.
  • Price growth expected to return to 2% by 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is inflation?
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. It is usually measured as an annual percentage change.
What is the consumer price index (CPI)?
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It is a key indicator of inflation.
What are interest rates?
Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money or the return on savings, expressed as a percentage. They are influenced by central banks and affect economic activity.
What is the Bank of England's target inflation rate?
The Bank of England's target inflation rate is 2%. This target is set to maintain price stability and support economic growth.

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