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Dollar eases with oil on hopes of swift end to Iran war

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 10, 2026

3 min read

· Last updated: April 1, 2026

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Dollar eases with oil on hopes of swift end to Iran war
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By Jiaxing Li HONG KONG, March 10 (Reuters) - The dollar lost some of its safe-haven appeal on speculation that the war in the Middle East could prove limited on Tuesday, pulling down skyrocketing oil

Dollar holds modest gains as Middle East conflict uncertainty persists

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

Market Reactions to Middle East Conflict Developments

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - The dollar clung to modest gains against major currencies on Tuesday, as investors' appetite for riskier assets remained subdued amid evolving developments in the Middle East conflict.

Recent Dollar Movements and Oil Price Fluctuations

The dollar, which surged in recent sessions after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran sent oil prices soaring, gave up some of those gains after President Donald Trump suggested on Monday the conflict could end sooner than expected.

Trump said the war could end well before the timeline he initially laid out, but threatened to escalate attacks should Tehran block oil shipments from the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump's comments helped ease concerns, reducing buying pressure on the dollar and sending oil prices down about 15% on Tuesday, a day after they soared to their highest levels since 2022.

Expert Insights on Currency and Commodity Dynamics

"I think this is largely a reflection of the FX complex reacting to the easing in energy prices, which if prolonged could lessen the inflationary implications of the current commodity shock, thus lessening some degree of pressure in terms of heavy energy-importer economies," Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London, said.

Performance of Major Currencies

The euro was 0.1% lower on the day at $1.16252 after sinking to a more than three-month low of $1.1505 in the prior session. The dollar was 0.1% up against the yen at 157.86.

Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Risks

Some strategists warned optimism about a quick resolution may be premature.

"We're still in a market where almost everything is still tightly correlated to developments in the crude complex, and where participants retain a laser-like focus on incoming geopolitical headlines," Pepperstone's Brown said.

Iran and G7 Responses

Iran's Revolutionary Guards dismissed Trump's remarks as "nonsense" and said the blockade would continue until attacks from the U.S. and Israel end.

Meanwhile, G7 energy ministers stopped short of agreeing on a release of strategic oil reserves on Tuesday and instead asked the International Energy Agency to assess the situation before acting.

Pound, Australian Dollar, and Other Currencies

The pound was 0.1% lower against the dollar at $1.34265. 

The pound has been pressured by subdued economic data and domestic political turbulence in recent weeks.

With investors' appetite for riskier assets creeping back, the Australian dollar rose 0.8% while the U.S. currency slipped 0.3% against the Mexican peso. 

Canadian Dollar and Oil Prices

The Canadian dollar rose about 0.1% to $1.3575 on Tuesday, and the yield on benchmark government debt climbed, as the firming risk appetite helped make up for falling crude prices.

"The CAD has appreciated 2% since November, largely a reflection of rising crude oil prices. Despite persistent risks from U.S. tariffs, stronger oil prices should bolster the loonie," strategists at global macro research and advisory firm Numera Analytics said in a note.

"Our forecast points to appreciation from 1.37 to 1.33 per USD over the next 12 months," they wrote.

Cryptocurrency Movements

On Tuesday, leading cryptocurrency bitcoin rose 2% to $70,382 but remained close to the multi-year low touched in early February.

(Reporting by Niket Nishant and Jiaxing Li; Writing by Jiaxing Li and Tom Westbrook; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Edwina Gibbs, William Maclean and Andrea Ricci )

Key Takeaways

  • President Trump’s comments suggesting the Iran war is “very complete” dampened safe-haven demand for the dollar, despite Iranian denials, helping oil and equities retreat from extremes (yahoo.com)
  • Brent crude dropped to around $92–$93 from near-$120 peaks, while earlier in the week prices had surged roughly 10–13% amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and refinery attacks (en.wikipedia.org)
  • Market caution remains: strategists note volatility may persist unless clear signs of sustained peace, central bank policy shifts, and economic slowdown thresholds are met (instituteforenergyresearch.org)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the dollar lose its safe-haven appeal?
The dollar eased as speculation grew that the war in the Middle East could be limited, reducing the immediate need for safe-haven assets.
How did oil prices react to the latest developments in Iran?
Brent crude futures dropped to $92.46 a barrel from highs near $120, as markets anticipated a less prolonged disruption.
What impact did President Trump's comments have on the markets?
Trump's comments about rapid progress in the Iran war calmed investors, easing fears of an enduring oil crisis and boosting risk assets.
How are global currencies responding to the Iran conflict?
Currencies like the yen, euro, Australian dollar, and sterling have all shown volatility, but many have steadied as markets wait for further developments.
What are analysts saying about the potential for further market volatility?
Analysts caution that volatility may not be over, as market thresholds for bigger moves depend on factors like oil prices and central bank policies.

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