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Dollar rises amid Fed rate cut expectations, better-than-expected retail sales data

Published by Uma Rajagopal

Posted on December 18, 2024

4 min read

· Last updated: January 28, 2026

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U.S. dollar rises as retail sales data exceeds expectations - Global Banking & Finance Review
The image illustrates the rise of the U.S. dollar against other currencies amid positive retail sales data, showcasing the financial market's reaction to upcoming Fed rate decisions. This highlights the dollar's role as a safe haven in current trading conditions.
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By Chibuike Oguh NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar gained against major currencies on Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data that showed underlying economic momentum while markets braced for interest rate moves from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Commerce Department data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations by jumping 0.7% in […]

By Chibuike Oguh

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar gained against major currencies on Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data that showed underlying economic momentum while markets braced for interest rate moves from the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Commerce Department data on Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations by jumping 0.7% in November, backed by an uptick in motor vehicle and online purchases.

Markets expect the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with futures implying a nearly 97% chance of a cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar edged lower by 0.2% to 0.89270 in choppy trading, after hovering near its highest level since July. The euro, which is heading for a drop of nearly 5% against the dollar this year, was down 0.24% at $1.048825.

The U.S. dollar index – which tracks the currency against six others – rose 0.17% to 106.97, after trading as high as 107.08 on the session.

“The market is trying to debate whether it’s time to fade the dollar, which has had an incredible run this year,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston.

“But it seems hard to really push back against U.S. exceptionalism and a stronger dollar going into the new administration, whether we’re talking about a Fed that will probably not seem as dovish as it did in September or the challenges that keep popping up in the emerging and developed markets that make the dollar a safe haven.”

The pound sterling rose against the dollar after data showed British wage growth picked up more strongly than expected in the three months to October. The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday. The sterling strengthened 0.16% to $1.27040.

The yen strengthened against the dollar, as markets have scaled back the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week in favor of a move in January. It rose 0.42% against the greenback to 153.52 per dollar.

The dollar weakened 0.06% to 7.287 versus the offshore Chinese yuan, as dour expectations for Chinese economic growth pinned 10-year bond yields near record lows.

The Australian dollar weakened 0.6% versus the greenback to $0.6332, while the Swedish crown weakened 0.76% versus the dollar to 10.964. The Norwegian Krone was also down 0.56% to 11.2052 against the greenback.

Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to cut rates by as much as half a point this week, while Norges Bank will likely leave rates unchanged.

Bitcoin rose as high as $108,379.28, trading near the $110,000 mark, before paring gains and was up 0.68% to $106,798.26.

“I think that the market is worried that they’re going to be only two cuts in the (Fed’s closely watched dot plot) next year; so it’s a little bit dollar positive,” said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX Research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.

Currency bid prices at 17 December​ 08:55 p.m. GMT Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Dollar index 106.97 106.79 0.19% 5.52% 107.08 106.69 Euro/Dollar 1.0487 1.0514 -0.25% -4.99% $1.0536 $1.0479 Dollar/Yen 153.53 154.125 -0.56% 8.66% 154.245 153.185 Euro/Yen 161.01​ 162.03 -0.63% 3.46% 162.47 160.78 Dollar/Swiss 0.8928 0.8947 -0.21% 6.08% 0.8975 0.8916 Sterling/Dollar 1.2706 1.2684 0.16% -0.17% $1.2728 $1.2669​ Dollar/Canadian 1.4312 1.4243 0.5% 7.98% 1.4324 1.4233 Aussie/Dollar 0.6332 0.6371 -0.61% -7.13% $0.6378 $0.6332 Euro/Swiss 0.9361 0.94 -0.41% 0.81% 0.9417 0.9356 Euro/Sterling 0.8252 0.8286 -0.41% -4.8% 0.8295 0.825 NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.575 0.5783 -0.55% -9% $0.5793 0.5751 Dollar/Norway 11.2061​ 11.1429 0.56% 10.56% 11.2146 11.1343 Euro/Norway 11.7517 11.7229 0.25% 4.7% 11.774 11.7184 Dollar/Sweden 10.9697 10.8745 0.88% 8.97% 10.9713 10.8712 Euro/Sweden 11.5048 11.4389 0.58% 3.41% 11.5085 11.4402

(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore and Amanda Cooper in London; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Matthew Lewis and Lincoln Feast.)

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the U.S. dollar index?
The U.S. dollar index measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It reflects the strength of the dollar in the global market.
What are basis points?
Basis points are a unit of measurement used in finance to describe the percentage change in value or interest rates. One basis point is equal to 0.01%.
What is an interest rate cut?
An interest rate cut occurs when a central bank lowers the interest rate, making borrowing cheaper. This can stimulate economic growth by encouraging spending and investment.
What is currency trading?
Currency trading, or forex trading, involves buying and selling currencies in the foreign exchange market. It is one of the largest financial markets in the world.

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