Finance

Global trade fragmentation comes with big output losses, ECB warns

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on January 3, 2025

1 min read

· Last updated: January 27, 2026

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Graph illustrating global trade fragmentation impacts on output losses - Global Banking & Finance Review
This image depicts the effects of global trade fragmentation, highlighting output losses as warned by the ECB. It connects to the article's discussion on how protectionist measures affect global economies.
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FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Global trade fragmentation due to protectionist measures entails sizeable output losses for all countries involved, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on

ECB Warns of Risks from Global Trade Fragmentation

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Global trade fragmentation due to protectionist measures entails sizeable output losses for all countries involved, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said on Friday, just as the incoming U.S. administration considers imposing fresh tariffs.

"Avoid broad-based protectionism because while resilience is a legitimate concern, a tit-for-tat trade war is welfare reducing and does not fully eliminate interdependencies," Lane said in presentation slides for a speech.

Trade fragmentation will matter for central banks and monetary policy because it causes larger, more frequent supply shocks during the transition period while over the longer run, reduced trade diversification increases volatility and inflation, he said.

(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

Key Takeaways

  • Global trade fragmentation causes output losses.
  • Protectionist measures increase economic volatility.
  • ECB advises against broad-based protectionism.
  • Trade fragmentation affects central banks' policies.
  • Reduced trade diversification raises inflation risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main topic?
The main topic is the impact of global trade fragmentation on economic output and stability.
Why does the ECB warn against protectionism?
The ECB warns that protectionism leads to output losses and increased volatility, affecting economic stability.
How does trade fragmentation affect monetary policy?
Trade fragmentation causes supply shocks and increases inflation, impacting central banks' monetary policies.

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