FRANKFURT, March 5 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank shouldn't be too optimistic about an early resolution of the Iran war, which may push up inflation and depress economic growth in the euro zone
ECB policymakers warn of inflation spike if Iran war lasts
By Francesco Canepa and Jan Strupczewski
Potential Economic Impacts of Prolonged Iran Conflict
FRANKFURT/BRUSSELS, March 5 (Reuters) - Three European Central Bank policymakers warned on Thursday that euro zone inflation would likely rise, and growth sag, if the war in Iran were to become drawn out and suck in more countries.
As the U.S.–Iran war entered its sixth day, the conflict has widened beyond Gulf states and into Asia, convulsing global markets and raising questions about the ECB's benign outlook for the euro zone.
ECB Policymakers' Initial Reactions
The ECB's vice president Luis de Guindos and the central bank governors of Germany and Finland all said it was too early to draw conclusions but warned that a prolonged, wider war may push up inflation, both present and expected.
Short-term vs Long-term Outlook
"The baseline (is) that this is going to be short-lived," de Guindos told an event in Brussels. "If it is longer, then there is a risk that inflation expectations will change."
Inflation in the euro zone has been hovering around the ECB's 2% target, on par with the ECB's own policy rate.
But accounts of the central bank's last meeting published on Thursday showed policymakers were already worrying about geopolitical uncertainty in countries including Iran.
Historical Context and Policy Lessons
Ukrainian Precedent?
The ECB was stung by an energy-led rise in inflation following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which it initially wrote off as temporary before hastily raising rates by a record amount.
This was likely to make some policymakers more cautious this time around.
Comparisons to Previous Crises
"I don't think we should be overly optimistic (about a swift resolution of the conflict)," Finnish governor Olli Rehn said at the same event, noting there had already been "quite some escalation".
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said the situation now was "somewhat different", noting monetary policy had been much looser in 2022, slowing down the ECB's reaction.
Like Rehn and several other policymakers who spoke in recent days, Nagel said a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would push up inflation and depress growth.
Possible Scenarios for Inflation and Growth
Short-term Resolution
"If the conflict comes to a swift end...the consequences for inflation would be short-term and limited overall," Nagel said in a speech.
Prolonged Conflict Effects
"By contrast, if energy prices were to remain elevated for an extended period of time, this would tend to lead to higher inflation and weaker economic activity in the euro area."
Policy Dilemmas for the ECB
This would be a tricky constellation for central bankers as brisker price growth would call for higher rates but sluggish growth would require the opposite.
Latvian central bank governor Martins Kazaks told Reuters earlier this week it would all depend on which of those two forces prevail and his Greek peer Yannis Stournaras called for flexibility in setting rates.
Upcoming ECB Policy Meeting
The ECB's next policy meeting is on March 18-19, with no change in interest rates expected.
(Additional reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Philippa Fletcher, Toby Chopra and Andrea Ricci )
