Finance

ECB's Nagel says long Iran war would push up inflation

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 5, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: April 2, 2026

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ECB's Nagel says long Iran war would push up inflation
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FRANKFURT, March 5 (Reuters) - A long war in Iran would push up inflation in the euro zone and hurt growth but it is still too early to draw any conclusion about the conflict, European Central Bank

ECB's Nagel: Extended Iran Conflict Likely to Raise Eurozone Inflation

Impact of Iran Conflict on Eurozone Economy and Bundesbank Report

Potential Effects of Prolonged Conflict

FRANKFURT, March 5 (Reuters) - A long war in Iran would push up inflation in the euro zone and hurt growth but it is still too early to draw any conclusion about the conflict, European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Thursday.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Scenarios

"If the conflict comes to a swift end...the consequences for inflation would be short-term and limited overall," he said in a speech.

"By contrast, if energy prices were to remain elevated for an extended period of time, this would tend to lead to higher inflation and weaker economic activity in the euro area."

Monetary Policy Considerations

He added it was still too early to draw conclusions for the setting of interesting rates.

Bundesbank's Annual Report and Financial Outlook

Nagel, the Bundesbank's president, was presenting the German central bank's annual report for 2025, which showed an 8.6 billion loss as a result of bonds bought during the stimulus programmes of the last decade.

While the losses were becoming smaller, Nagel expected the Bundesbank to close 2026 still in the red.

Gold Reserves Status

The annual accounts also showed the Bundesbank had not moved its 3,350 tonnes of gold, which remain stored in Frankfurt, New York and London.

(Reporting by Francesco Canepa; Editing by Toby Chopra)

Key Takeaways

  • A prolonged Iran war would keep energy prices high, boosting inflation and hurting euro‑zone growth; a swift end would mean only short‑term inflation effects.
  • Nagel presented the Bundesbank’s 2025 annual report showing an €8.6 billion loss from past bond‑buying programmes, with red figures expected again in 2026.
  • Germany’s gold reserves—totaling about 3,355 tonnes—remain stored abroad (New York, London) as well as in Frankfurt, with over 37 % still at the Fed’s New York vault.

References

Frequently Asked Questions

How could a long war in Iran affect eurozone inflation?
A prolonged conflict could keep energy prices high, leading to higher inflation and weaker economic activity in the euro area.
What did Nagel say about the impact of a swift end to the conflict?
Nagel stated that if the conflict ends quickly, the consequences for inflation would be short-term and limited.
Is it too early for the ECB to set interest rates based on the conflict?
Yes, Nagel emphasized it is still too early to draw conclusions about setting interest rates due to the uncertainty.
What loss did the Bundesbank report for 2025?
The Bundesbank reported an 8.6 billion loss for 2025, mainly from bonds bought during previous stimulus programmes.
Where is the Bundesbank's gold currently stored?
The Bundesbank's 3,350 tonnes of gold remain stored in Frankfurt, New York, and London.

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