By Mohi Narayan and Ahmad Ghaddar NEW DELHI/LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - European and U.S. gasoline cargoes are heading to the Asia Pacific after Asian prices surged on tightening supply due to the
European Gasoline Flows Shift to Asia Amid Iran War and Rising Supply Fears
Impact of Middle East Conflict on Global Gasoline Trade
By Mohi Narayan and Ahmad Ghaddar
Gasoline Cargoes Redirected to Asia Pacific
NEW DELHI/LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - European and U.S. gasoline cargoes are heading to the Asia Pacific after Asian prices surged on tightening supply due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, according to trade sources and shipping data.
The war has disrupted crude and oil product shipments from the Middle East to Asia, causing Asian refineries to cut output and forcing fuel distributors to seek supply from as far as the United States and buy more Russian fuel.
The extra shipping costs will exacerbate already soaring fuel prices for consumers and businesses.
Key Players and Shipments
At least three gasoline cargoes totalling about 1.6 million barrels have loaded last week from Europe for Asia, according to traders and ship tracking data from Kpler, as companies including Vitol and TotalEnergies ship the fuel to the East to cash in on better margins in Asia.
Vitol and TotalEnergies declined to comment.
Earlier, Exxon Mobil booked U.S. gasoline cargoes for Australia.
Europe typically only sends small parcels of gasoline to the East of Suez markets, while its key markets are the U.S., Latin America and West Africa.
Asian Refinery Margins and Market Dynamics
Asian refiners' profits from making a barrel of gasoline from Brent crude are hovering near 2022 highs of about $37 a barrel over Brent crude last week versus $8 before the war.
Refinery Behavior Amid Supply Uncertainty
"One key factor is refinery behaviour under crude supply uncertainty. As disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz increase feedstock risk, some refiners are becoming more cautious about run rates or export commitments," Nithin Prakash, analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, said.
Even if inventories currently appear comfortable, lower refining throughput could tighten the supply outlook and support gasoline margins, he said.
Singapore Inventory Levels
Singapore inventories of light distillates, which include gasoline and naphtha, are about 6% higher than the same time last year, at 17.93 million barrels, LSEG data showed.
Regional Supply Challenges
Declining Shipments from Major Exporters
REGIONAL SUPPLY FALLS
Gasoline supply from within the region is falling as shipments from top fuel exporter South Korea are expected to drop to between 5 million and 6 million barrels in March from a three-month average of about 10 million barrels, preliminary Kpler and LSEG data showed.
China, another big supplier, has banned fuel exports to shore up its domestic market. Thailand and Vietnam have also restricted fuel exports.
India's Role in Asian Gasoline Supply
Traders are now pinning their hopes on Asia's second largest fuel exporter, India, which typically sends about 40% of its monthly shipments of between 7 million and 8 million barrels to the Middle East, to pivot to the East.
India typically sends about 22% of its gasoline to Asia, LSEG data showed. However, the country's gasoline exports have plummeted to about 5 million to 6 million barrels in March from around 12 million barrels last month, preliminary LSEG and Kpler data showed, as state-run Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals has temporarily suspended cargo loadings.
Recent Gasoline Shipments Overview
Vessel Movements and Cargo Details
Vessel Load port Discharge Volume Load Charterer
port (bbl) date
Maui Ventspils Singapore 770,000 March 18 Vitol
Metro Mistral Amsterdam Karachi 500,000 March 14 TotalEnergies
ST Connaught Amsterdam Singapore 400,000 March 17 NA
Source: Kpler and shipping data from traders
(Reporting by Mohi Narayan in New Delhi, Ahmad Ghaddar and Enes Tunagur in London, and Shariq Khan in New York; Editing by Sonali Paul)
