Factbox-Who hurts most as Iran war hits global economy?

Factbox-Who hurts most as Iran war hits global economy?

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By Yoruk Bahceli and Marc Jones

LONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - The Iran war, now in its fourth week, is creating a major crisis in energy supplies that is impacting every corner of the global economy. But it is already clear that some countries are either more exposed to that impact or less able to deal with it.

Here are some economies to watch.

Impact of the Iran War on Global Economies

The G7

Look first to Europe. A fresh energy shock rekindles painful memories of Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago that brought the region's import dependence sharply into focus.

Inflation is set to jump again and traders are betting the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may have to raise interest rates this year.

Data on Tuesday showed business activity has already taken a hit from the conflict, signalling slowing economic growth.

Germany

GERMANY - Its industry-heavy economy has more to lose from costlier energy and any global downturn that would hit its exporters. But for now, German business activity is holding up relatively well and the manufacturing sector is continuing to expand after contracting for nearly four years.

A massive stimulus programme Germany announced last year should help cushion some of the impact.

Italy

ITALY - Also home to a big manufacturing sector. Moreover, oil and gas have among the highest shares in its primary energy consumption in Europe.

Britain

BRITAIN - In its electricity production it relies more on gas-fired power than its European peers. Gas prices almost always set its electricity prices - and they are rising faster than oil prices since the start of the war.

An energy price cap will dampen the initial inflation impact. Interest rate hikes would deepen the pain for borrowers, however, as Britain already has the highest borrowing costs in the G7 at a time of rising unemployment.

Budget strains and pressure in the bond market limit the government's options for helping businesses and households.

Japan

JAPAN - Also firmly in the firing line, sourcing around 95% of its oil from the Middle East and nearly 90% of it travelling through the Hormuz Strait.

That comes on top of inflationary pressures it is already experiencing from a weak yen, which affects food and daily necessities prices given Japan's heavy reliance on imported raw materials.

Emerging Economy Heavyweights

The Gulf region itself is inevitably taking a direct economic hit, with some forecasters already predicting its economy will now shrink this year, reversing pre-war expectations for solid growth.

The jump in oil and gas prices is no help if the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz means countries - especially Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain - cannot get their hydrocarbons onto the international markets.

The conflict could also affect remittances - the money expat workers send back home to their families and which each year pumps tens of billions of dollars into the local economies.

India

INDIA - Another exposed heavyweight. It imports about 90% of its crude oil and nearly half of its liquefied petroleum gas, and roughly half of that oil and an even larger share of its LPG has to come through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economists are already trimming the country's growth forecasts and the rupee has swooned to a record low. In restaurants and kitchens across India, hot food and drinks - even samosas, dosa and chai tea - are disappearing from the menu as the surge in gas prices leads to informal rationing.

Turkey

TURKEY - Sharing a border with Iran, it is bracing for a potential influx of refugees and more geopolitical uncertainty. The main economic impact meanwhile has been on the central bank.

It is already having deja vu of inflation crises past. It has been forced to halt its interest rate-cutting cycle for the second time in a year and sold as much as $23 billion in precious reserves to bolster its currency.

The Fragile Few

There are also a handful of countries that look particularly vulnerable having recently been through - or had close shaves with - full-blown economic crises.

Sri Lanka

SRI LANKA has just made every Wednesday a public holiday for state-sector workers in a bid to cap energy costs. Schools, universities and public institutions are being shut, non-essential public transport suspended and drivers must now register for a National Fuel Pass restricting fuel purchases.

Pakistan

PAKISTAN was teetering on the brink of crisis two years ago and has ramped up its petrol prices and closed its schools for two weeks too. Government departments are having their fuel allowances halved, are now banned from buying new air conditioners and furniture, and have been ordered to take a chunk of their vehicles off the road.

Egypt

EGYPT, on top of the surging cost of fuel and food staples, faces the prospect of a sharp drop in Suez Canal and tourism revenues, the latter of which brought almost $20 billion into the economy last year. The cost of paying back its debt, much of which is in U.S. dollars, has been made more arduous too by a near 9% slump in its own currency since the war began.

Additional Reporting

(Additional reporting by Leika Kihara in Tokyo; Patrick Werr in Cairo; Ariba Shahid in Lahore; Jonathan Spicer in Istanbul; Andy Bruce in Manchester; editing by Mark John and Hugh Lawson)