BERLIN, March 4 (Reuters) - Germany's intelligence service on Wednesday accused Moscow of hiding the true cost of the war in Ukraine, saying Russia's budget deficit in 2025 was more than 2.36 trillion
German Intelligence Claims Russia Hides True Economic Impact of Ukraine War
Russia's Economic Situation Amid Ukraine Conflict
German Intelligence Service's Allegations
BERLIN, March 4 (Reuters) - Germany's intelligence service on Wednesday accused Moscow of hiding the true cost of the war in Ukraine, saying Russia's budget deficit in 2025 was more than 2.36 trillion roubles ($30.45 billion) higher than officially stated.
In a post on LinkedIn, the BND said Western sanctions were having a "clear effect" on the Russian economy, alongside significantly lower oil and gas revenues due to a sharp fall in global prices.
Implications for Russia's Economic Future
"Putin is sacrificing Russia's economic future for his imperial goals," the intelligence service said.
Kremlin's Response to Economic Concerns
The Kremlin last week said falling revenues and a growing budget deficit were "routine difficulties" and fixable thanks to overall macroeconomic stability.
Impact of Sanctions and Global Oil Prices
Decline in Oil Revenues
Russian revenues from sales of oil, its main export commodity, have fallen because Moscow has been forced to sell it at a greater discount on global markets due to Western sanctions and U.S. pressure on major buyers.
Budget Deficit Figures
The BND put Russia's federal budget deficit at 8.01 trillion roubles compared to the official figure of 5.65 trillion that equates to 2.6% of GDP. It did not divulge detailed calculations on how it arrived at the precise figure, and did not immediately reply to a request for further comment.
Consolidated Budget Deficit
Russia's consolidated budget deficit, which includes regional budgets, substantially deteriorated in 2025, reaching 8.3 trillion roubles or 3.9% of GDP, 2.6-fold more than in 2024 due to falling revenues and increased expenditure.
Official Reactions and Market Context
Finance Ministry and Government Sources
The Finance Ministry has not commented on BND's allegations.
A source close to the Russian government had told Reuters in February that Russia's budget situation was sharply deteriorating.
Global Oil Prices and Russian Budget
Global oil prices have rallied in the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, but the rise still falls short of what is needed to balance the Russian budget, according to Reuters calculations.
Exchange Rate Information
($1 = 77.5000 roubles)
Reporting Credits
(Reporting by Andreas Rinke and Sabine Siebold; Writing by Kirsti Knolle and Matthias Williams; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Philippa Fletcher)
