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Germany unlikely to slip into recession, Bundesbank chief says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on April 16, 2026

1 min read

· Last updated: April 17, 2026

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Germany unlikely to slip into recession, Bundesbank chief says
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By Christian Kraemer WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Thursday that the oil price shock due to the Iran war will take a toll on the German economy but is

Germany Unlikely to Enter Recession Despite Oil Shock, Says Bundesbank Chief

Bundesbank President Comments on Economic Outlook Amid Oil Price Shock

By Christian Kraemer

Impact of Oil Price Shock on German Economy

WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Thursday that the oil price shock due to the Iran war will take a toll on the German economy but is unlikely to trigger a recession. 

Recession Risks and Economic Resilience

"A great deal would have to happen for us to enter a recession now," Nagel said in Washington, on a panel with Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund spring meetings. 

Growth Prospects and Challenges

He added that while the economy had got off to a "respectable start" this year, the war in the Middle East was acting as a brake on growth. 

Government Forecasts and Inflation Projections

The German government has halved its growth forecast for 2026 and also cut its growth prediction for 2027, while raising its inflation projections, a source told Reuters on Thursday.

(Reporting by Christian Kraemer, Maria Martinez and Reinhard Becker; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Key Takeaways

  • Bundesbank chief says recession unlikely despite oil shock from Iran war
  • German government has sharply lowered growth forecasts to around 1.0 % for 2026 and 1.3 % for 2027, citing elevated uncertainty
  • Expansionary fiscal policy—including a massive infrastructure and defence fund—is cushioning the economy from recessionary risk

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does the Bundesbank chief believe Germany will avoid recession?
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated that a great deal would have to happen for Germany to enter a recession, despite the oil price shock due to the Iran war.
How has the war in the Middle East impacted Germany's economy?
The war in the Middle East has acted as a brake on Germany's economic growth, according to Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel.
Who commented on the economic outlook at the IMF spring meetings?
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil addressed Germany’s economic outlook at the IMF spring meetings in Washington.

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