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Oil futures return to structure signalling tight supply on Russia sanctions

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on October 23, 2025

2 min read

· Last updated: January 21, 2026

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Oil futures return to structure signalling tight supply on Russia sanctions
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By Seher Dareen LONDON (Reuters) -The prompt Brent crude futures contract on Thursday returned to trading at a premium to the six-month contract after new U.S. sanctions on Russia revived concern of a

Brent Crude Futures Signal Tight Supply Amid New Russia Sanctions

By Seher Dareen

LONDON (Reuters) -The prompt Brent crude futures contract on Thursday returned to trading at a premium to the six-month contract after new U.S. sanctions on Russia revived concern of a tight market in the near term, erasing earlier signs of a fear of a glut. 

The first-month Brent contract is now trading at near $2 a barrel above the contract for delivery in six months, returning to a market structure known as backwardation which indicates tight near-term supply.

Global oil prices rallied by over 5% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump hit Russia's two biggest oil companies - Lukoil and Rosneft - with sanctions. The EU added two Chinese refiners and a trader to its Russia sanctions list.

"Market participants are shifting their concerns from oversupplied markets to supply disruption concerns," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "Russia is the third-largest oil producer and the two companies account for 50-55% of Russian output," he said of Lukoil and Rosneft. 

Earlier this week, prompt Brent traded as low as 56 cents a barrel below the six-month contract, having moved to a discount on October 16 for the first time since May. This structure, when prompt barrels trade at a discount to later supply, reflects a perception of a well supplied market in the near term.

The equivalent spread for the major U.S. WTI crude futures contract was also trading in backwardation on Thursday, also ending a brief period in contango.

(Reporting by Seher Dareen in London, editing by Alex Lawler and Chizu Nomiyama )

Key Takeaways

  • Brent crude futures return to backwardation, signaling tight supply.
  • New U.S. sanctions on Russia affect major oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft.
  • Global oil prices rose by over 5% following the sanctions.
  • Market concerns shift from oversupply to potential supply disruptions.
  • The EU adds Chinese refiners to its Russia sanctions list.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is backwardation?
Backwardation is a market condition where the price of a commodity for immediate delivery is higher than the price for future delivery, indicating tight supply.
What is Brent crude oil?
Brent crude oil is a major trading classification of crude oil originating from the North Sea, used as a benchmark for oil prices globally.
What is contango?
Contango is a market condition where the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, indicating an oversupply.
What is the role of UBS in oil market analysis?
UBS is a global financial services company that provides analysis and insights on various markets, including oil, helping investors understand trends and risks.

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