Finance

Goldman Sachs expects ECB rate hikes in April and June as inflation concerns mount

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 23, 2026

1 min read

· Last updated: April 1, 2026

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Goldman Sachs expects ECB rate hikes in April and June as inflation concerns mount
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March 23 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Monday it expects the European Central Bank to deliver two 25 basis point interest rate hikes in April and June, joining peers J.P.Morgan and Barclays as

Goldman Sachs Sees ECB Hiking Rates in April and June on Inflation Concerns

Goldman Sachs Revises ECB Rate Hike Forecast Amid Inflation Risks

Expected Rate Hikes in April and June

March 23 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Monday it expects the European Central Bank to deliver two 25 basis point interest rate hikes in April and June, joining peers J.P.Morgan and Barclays as policymakers signal inflation risks driven by the Middle East war.

Previous Forecasts and Policy Stance

The brokerage previously expected the central bank to maintain rates steady throughout this year.

ECB’s March Policy Meeting and Outlook

At its March policy meeting, the ECB left interest rates unchanged but indicated that it was closely watching growth and inflation risks posed by surging oil prices and was ready to act if necessary.

(Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

Key Takeaways

  • Goldman Sachs forecasts ECB rate hikes in April and June, joining peers as inflation concerns escalate due to higher oil prices (apnews.com).
  • Prior to this, Goldman had expected no rate changes this year; the shift reflects heightened inflation uncertainty from the Iran‑Middle East conflict (apnews.com).
  • Markets now assign a roughly 60% probability to an ECB rate hike by June, driven by rising oil prices and 0.5 percentage‑point inflation pressure according to Goldman models (ainvest.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Goldman Sachs expect ECB rate hikes?
Goldman Sachs expects ECB rate hikes due to persistent inflation risks, especially from rising oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict.
When does Goldman Sachs predict the ECB will raise rates?
Goldman Sachs predicts the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both April and June.
Did the ECB change its policy at the March meeting?
At its March meeting, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged but signaled readiness to act if inflation pressures intensify.
What factors are influencing the ECB's rate decisions?
Key factors include inflation risks driven by surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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