April 9 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, late on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-
Goldman Sachs lowers second-quarter 2026 oil price forecasts
Goldman Sachs revises oil and gas price outlook following U.S.-Iran ceasefire
Updated oil price forecasts for Q2 2026
April 9 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, late on Wednesday, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.
"Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI," the bank said in a note.
Market reaction to Strait of Hormuz developments
Brent crude oil prices are down over 11% so far this week amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
However, prices rose on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and as the crucial strait remains restricted. [O/R]
Outlook for Q3 and Q4 2026
Goldman kept its third-quarter forecast unchanged at $82 for Brent and $77 for WTI, and for the fourth quarter at $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI.
Risks and upside scenarios
The bank said risks to its price forecasts remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer‑lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses.
Severe disruption scenario
In a severe case where the ceasefire doesn't hold and with persistent Middle East production losses of around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could average closer to $115 in the fourth quarter, the bank said.
European gas price forecasts
Goldman also lowered its second-quarter European benchmark TTF gas price forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh) from 70 EUR/MWh, on the assumption of gradual normalisation of LNG flows through Hormuz from mid-April.
Potential for higher gas prices
However, if LNG flows are significantly delayed or production infrastructure is damaged, prices will likely go above 75 EUR/MWh, Goldman added.
(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
