IMF raises Russia 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% on higher oil prices

IMF Lifts 2026 Russia GDP Growth Forecast to 1.1% Amid High Oil Prices

IMF Upgrades Russia's Economic Outlook

Revised Growth Forecasts for 2026

MOSCOW, April 14 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its forecast for Russia's economic growth this year to 1.1%, from 0.8% previously, due to higher oil and other commodity prices as a result of the Middle East crisis.

Factors Impacting Russia's Economic Performance

Slowdown in 2025 and Contributing Factors

The Russian economy slowed sharply in 2025 to around 1% growth, down from 4.9% in 2024, due to the central bank's tight monetary policy and Western sanctions. The economy is also under strain from spending on the war in Ukraine.

Impact of Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions

Russia's fortunes changed after prices for oil, its main export commodity, spiked when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil trade, in response to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that began on February 28.

IMF's World Economic Outlook Statement

Growth Projections for 2026 and 2027

"In Russia, higher commodity prices are projected to drive the 0.3 percentage point upward revision of 2026 growth relative to January, to 1.1%, with the momentum continuing to register another 1.1% growth rate in 2027," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.

Government and Analyst Reactions

Russian Government's Response

The Russian government, which has yet to receive some of the windfall for the budget through commodity-related taxes, said it may downgrade its growth forecast, currently at 1.3%, during a review this month.

Analyst Forecasts and Recent GDP Data

Analyst Predictions

Analysts polled by Reuters last month forecast economic growth of 0.8% this year. Russia's GDP fell by 1.5% year on year in February and by 2.1% in January.

(Reporting by Gleb BryanskiEditing by Alexandra Hudson)