By Angelo Amante ROME, Feb 27 (Reuters) - A proposed overhaul of Italy's voting system could boost Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's re-election chances next year, studies showed on Friday, suggesting
Italy seat-bonus electoral reform could hand Meloni a stable majority
By Angelo Amante
Proposed overhaul and potential impact on Italy’s parliamentary majority
ROME, Feb 27 (Reuters) - A proposed overhaul of Italy's voting system could boost Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's re-election chances next year, studies showed on Friday, suggesting even a small lead over the opposition would be enough to give her a comfortable win.
Reform proposal: proportional system with a seat bonus
This week, the ruling centre-right parties struck a deal to reform the electoral rules, switching to a fully proportional system including a seat bonus designed to give a stable majority to any coalition that wins more than 40% of the vote. The reform still needs parliament's approval.
Simulations: outcomes under current vs proposed rules
A simulation by polling firm YouTrend showed that under Italy's current system - mostly proportional, with 36% of lawmakers elected in first-past-the-post constituencies - neither bloc would secure a parliamentary majority. A purely proportional system would instead grant 57% of seats in the two houses of parliament to Meloni's Brothers of Italy party and its allies, the League and Forza Italia.
YouTrend analysis on the seat bonus effect
"The seat bonus would go entirely to the centre-right as the most-voted-for coalition, turning a lead of just a few percentage points in the polls into a solid parliamentary majority," YouTrend said.
Seat bonus mechanics and caps
The winning bloc would receive a 70-seat bonus in the 400-seat lower house and a 35-seat bonus in the 200-seat Senate but this would be capped at 60% of the total seats "to safeguard the opposition", a coalition statement said.
Political reactions and arguments over stability
The main opposition Democratic Party accused the government of distorting the system to maximise its chances of staying in power, while right-wing groups say they only want to ensure a stable government after the 2027 vote.
Polling-based projections and coalition dynamics
A study by pollster Noto Sondaggi for daily La Stampa said currently the centre-right was potentially ahead by four percentage points - winning it up to 242 lower house seats under the proposed law, compared with 152 for the opposition.
Lessons from the 2022 election
The leftist bloc, which includes the Five Star Movement, failed to forge an alliance at the 2022 election, handing Meloni an easy win.
Potential opposition alliance and regional battlegrounds
A broad opposition alliance is expected to form next year, which YouTrend said under the current system could give the left an edge in first-past-the-post contests in southern Italy, where the Five Star Movement has many strongholds.
Opposition warning on electoral law changes
"Everyone before Meloni who has changed the electoral law for political and personal gain has ended up losing afterwards," noted the Democratic Party's European lawmaker Stefano Bonaccini.
(Reporting by Angelo Amante; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
