By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida, April 8 (Reuters) - World markets soared on Wednesday and oil had its biggest fall in five years, as investors gave a hearty welcome to the ceasefire in the Iran
World Markets Surge, Oil Plunges After Iran Ceasefire—Is Recovery Real?
Market Reactions and Economic Implications
By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, April 8 (Reuters) - World markets soared on Wednesday and oil had its biggest fall in five years, as investors gave a hearty welcome to the ceasefire in the Iran war. The question now is whether this is just a mega-relief rally, or a major turning point in sentiment.
Global Imbalances and Financial Stability
In my column today I look at the return of 'global imbalances', the widening current account deficits and surpluses of major economies, that could pose financial stability risks if allowed to go unchecked.
Recommended Reading
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
- Vance to lead US delegation to Iran talks on Saturday
- Iran war ceasefire pushes energy markets into twilightzone: Bousso
- Traders place large $950 million bet on oil pricefalling hours ahead of ceasefire
- Why the bond market won't bounce back to pre-war levels
- Fed minutes show growing openness to rate hikes at Marchmeeting
Today's Key Market Moves
- STOCKS: South Korea +7.5%, Japan +5% the standouts inAsia; UK +2.5%, Europe +3.7%; Wall Street benchmarks rally 2.5%- 2.9%, Nasdaq regains pre-war levels.
- SECTORS/SHARES: Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rise -industrials, comms services, materials up 3% or more. Energysinks 3.7%. Airlines, cruise operators, hotel stocks risesharply.
- FX: Dollar index -1%. SEK, NZD biggest G10 gainers,+1.6%; ZAR, HUF, CLP biggest EM FX winners, up ~2%.
- BONDS: Huge rally in Europe: 2-year German, UK yieldsplunge ~25 bps, 10-year yields 15-20 bps. US Treasuries moremuted, yields down 6 bps at short end. 10-year auction on thesoft side. JGBs narrowly mixed.
- COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil plunges. Brent -13%, WTI -16%for its biggest fall since April 2020. European LNG -15%. Goldup only 1%.
Today's Talking Points
The Ultimate TACO Tuesday
It had to be on a Tuesday, didn't it? President Donald Trump's ceasefire announcement fired up the 'Trump always chickens out' trades and triggered stunning moves across all markets on Wednesday.
World stocks had their best day in a year, two-year UK and euro zone yields fell the most in three years, and U.S. oil had its biggest fall in five years. The euphoria was palpable, but reality will soon set in. Think again Thursday?
Just a Minute
Minutes of the Fed's March 17-18 policy meeting show that a growing group of officials were leaning towards raising rates, and saw a "strong case for a two-sided" assessment of the bank's next move. That is, the Fed could just as likely raise interest rates as lower them.
This compares with a smaller group of "several" officials who were open to raising rates in January. If the feared "persistent increase in oil prices" plays out, rate cut(s) this year should probably be taken off the table. Even if the ceasefire holds.
The Only Certainty is Uncertainty
The relief across markets is palpable, and the rally may have more room to run. But it's clear that economic conditions are becoming increasingly volatile for investors, businesses and households. Just take a look at the U.S. policy uncertainty index.
Beyond the one-off spikes around certain events and the once-in-a-century global pandemic of 2020, there has been a structural shift higher in the index since Trump came back to the White House. Forecasting, planning, and decision-making is more difficult with uncertainty consistently higher. As policymakers are also finding out.
What Could Move Markets Tomorrow?
- Developments in the Middle East
- Energy market moves
- Social media posts from Trump
- Japan consumer confidence (March)
- Poland interest rate decision
- Germany trade (February)
- Germany industrial production (February)
- Mexico inflation (February)
- US Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds at auction
- US weekly jobless claims
- US PCE inflation (February)
- US GDP (Q4, final)
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Disclaimer
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)
