A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreed this week looks increasingly strained as Israeli attacks on Lebanon brought retaliation
Strait of Hormuz Conflict Shakes Oil Prices and Global Financial Markets
Market Reactions and Economic Impacts Amid Middle East Tensions
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter
Escalating Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreed this week looks increasingly strained as Israeli attacks on Lebanon brought retaliation from Hezbollah, while the lack of ships resuming passage through the Strait of Hormuz prompted a fresh tirade from the U.S. leader.
Investor Sentiment and Market Performance
Investors were nervous as Iran said Israel's Lebanon attacks violate its agreement with the United States, stalling risk-on sentiment that had followed the deal. S&P 500 e-mini futures were flat on Friday while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan was up 0.8%.
Regional Political Developments
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said he was seeking talks with Beirut, a day after the worst Israeli bombardment of the war killed more than 300 people in Lebanon. On Friday, Hezbollah responded by launching a missile at Israel, triggering air raid sirens including in Tel Aviv.
U.S. and Iranian Responses
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump berated Iran on Truth Social for doing a "very poor job" of allowing ships through the strait. "That is not the agreement we have!" he wrote.
Impact on Oil Supply and Prices
Before the war, one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments passed through Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, traffic was well below 10% of normal volume as ships navigated both mines and bureaucracy, with each vessel requiring Iranian approval.
The strait's effective closure during the U.S. and Israel's six-week war with Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets as oil prices surged and energy supplies tightened.
Global Economic Ripple Effects
In a sign the conflict is feeding cost pressure beyond the region, factory-gate prices in China rose for the first time in three and a half years in March, official data showed.
Brent crude rose 0.7% to $96.57 a barrel on supply fear, with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Friday saying Japan plans to release 20 days' worth of oil reserves from May to ensure stable domestic supply.
Stock Market Movements
Also in Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.6% as shares in Fast Retailing set a record after the Uniqlo owner on Thursday reported a profit jump that beat market estimates.
In early European trade, pan-region futures were up 0.6%, German DAX futures were up 0.6% and FTSE futures were up 0.2%.
Key Economic Events to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
- Germany CPI, HICP for March
- Germany current account balance for February
- U.K. auction of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month government debt
(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
