March 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been a sea of red in Asian stock markets as Brent cleared $115 right from the off. It's now up roughly
Brent Oil Surges 59% in March Amid Middle East Tensions and Supply Risks
Market Reactions and Geopolitical Influences
March 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
Brent Oil Price Rally
It's been a sea of red in Asian stock markets as Brent cleared $115 right from the off. It's now up roughly 59% in March, which would be the biggest month on record. Bigger even than when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.
Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East
Diplomatic Efforts and Ongoing Attacks
The headlines have not been helpful, with Pakistan trying to host peace talks but would-be U.S. and Iranian guests seemingly reluctant to RSVP. Attacks have continued across the Gulf and widened to the south as Yemen's Houthis launched strikes on Israel.
Strategic Oil Choke Points
Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea
That was a worrying development as the Houthis could try to restrict shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea, which is the other major choke point in the Middle East oil trade alongside the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran Relations
As for the Strait, President Trump told the Financial Times that Iran had agreed to let through another 20 "big boats", presumably tankers, as a concession. That would also seem to be a tacit recognition that Iran controls the Strait.
Then again, Trump also said he wants to "take the oil in Iran" and might use U.S. forces to seize Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, Iran's main oil exporting terminal.
He went on to say that talks with Iran were going on directly and indirectly, were going extremely well and could reach a deal soon, or might not.
U.S. Military Build-Up
Meanwhile, the U.S. build-up goes on, with various reports that more than 50,000 troops are in the region including more special forces.
Market Implications and Economic Outlook
Supply Chain Risks and Oil Futures
All of which suggests the conflict could run for some time yet and the risks lean toward escalation, dealing more damage down the supply chain and lengthening the time for it to return to anything like normal once, if, the Strait re-opens. That is one reason why Brent futures are above $100 out to July, and December is up at $85 a barrel.
Inflation and Central Bank Responses
That's bad news for inflation and will show up starkly in March German preliminary CPI due later Monday, and EU CPI on Tuesday. The hawks at the ECB are already clawing for a rate hike, and markets imply a 58% chance of an April move.
Futures have given up on a Fed easing this year, which Fed Chair Powell may have something to say about at a Harvard event later today. It will also be front of mind for Kevin Warsh, the proposed replacement for Powell, with the Senate Banking Committee planning to hold a hearing on Warsh's nomination as soon as the week of April 13.
Key Developments to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
- German preliminary CPI for March
- EU economic confidence for March
- Dallas Fed March survey
- Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell participates in a moderated discussion. Fed Bank of New York President John Williams in conversation
- G7 finance and energy ministers, as well as central bankers, will meet virtually
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Sonali Paul)
