LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Shares of Novo Nordisk rose 7% on Friday, touching their highest level since September, and were among the top gainers in Europe, ahead of U.S. prescription data expected
Novo's Wegovy Pill Launch Shows Promising Early Results in Weight Loss
Early Performance of Wegovy Pill
By Bhanvi Satija and Maggie Fick
Market Reception and Sales Projections
LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Novo Nordisk's Wegovy weight-loss pill has made an encouraging start after its launch this month, analysts said on Friday citing early U.S. prescription data, with investors watching closely its battle with U.S. rival Eli Lilly.
Challenges and Future Outlook
The U.S. prescription data only covers four days, but gives a glimpse into the performance of the first such pill to hit the weight-loss market as drugmakers shift towards cash-pay consumer models.
Novo's Denmark-listed shares jumped 6.5% to close at their highest level since September.
The Danish company, under a new CEO who took over last year, is betting on the pill version of its blockbuster Wegovy treatment to help attract new consumers as the drugmaker looks to regain ground on Lilly after profit warnings and slowing growth weighed on its shares last year.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to make a decision on Lilly's experimental pill by April.
"Early signs are positive and we are encouraged by feedback from our collaborators," Novo said in a statement, though it added it was too early to speak about trends for the daily pill.
ASSESSING NOVO'S FIRST-TO-MARKET ADVANTAGE
About 3,071 retail prescriptions were filled for the Wegovy pill in the first four days after its launch on January 5, according to closely-watched IQVIA data shared by analysts. It excluded prescriptions filled through online pharmacies including Novo's NovoCare Pharmacy.
Barclays analysts said the data showed strong, very early uptake for the pill, though they cautioned that Novo's sales could come under pressure from price reductions and shifting insurance coverage by U.S. states.
Novo is prioritizing the launch of the pill in the United States before expanding, hoping to avoid supply shortages that followed the U.S. launch of its Wegovy injection in 2021.
The early data is only a snapshot. Analysts and investors told Reuters this week that they would have a better idea after the first few weeks of how Novo's pill was faring on its first-to-market lead against Lilly.
UBS analysts said that if Wegovy pill prescriptions top 400,000 for the first quarter, then that would be comparable to the launch of Lilly's Zepbound and would be considered significantly stronger than that of the Wegovy injection.
Berenberg analysts estimate the pill could bring in about $1 billion in sales this year if Novo can make the most of its first-mover advantage.
EXPANDING THE MARKET
The success of Novo's pill will be tied to how well it can attract U.S. cash-paying consumers outside insurance coverage, a stark shift from the dominant business model where drug pricing is managed through health insurance plans.
Novo is offering the pill through U.S. pharmacies CVS and Costco, as well as through telehealth providers including Ro, LifeMD, WeightWatchers, GoodRx and its own NovoCare Pharmacy.
"There are early signs that the Wegovy pill on Ro is an attractive option for both new patients and those looking to maintain their progress on another GLP-1," said Zach Reitano, CEO and co-founder of Ro.
Oral drugs for obesity offer patients more flexibility and provide an alternative for those who dislike needles, though injections are expected to remain dominant in the years ahead.
Suchita Shah, a senior partner at consultancy firm BCG in its U.S. healthcare practice, said the launch of the Wegovy pill and later Lilly's would drive the weight-loss market this year, though as more treatments hit the market patients would develop their preferences.
(Reporting by Bhanvi Satija and Maggie Fick in London, and Elviira Luoma in Gdansk; Editing by Joe Bavier and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
