By Sam Li and Lewis Jackson BEIJING, March 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped on Friday morning after the U.S. issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products currently
Crude futures turn positive on continued Hormuz closure
Market Reaction and Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions
By Erwin Seba
HOUSTON, March 13 (Reuters) - Crude futures climbed higher on Friday as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, but analysts were wary the weekend might bring surprise changes in the status of the war two weeks after it started.
Crude Price Movements
Brent futures for May settled at $103.14 a barrel, up $2.68, or 2.67%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April finished at $98.71 a barrel, up $2.98, or 3.11%.
Prices were down early on Friday on an erroneous report that an Indian-flagged tanker had sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been shut since the war began.
Once it became clear the tanker sailed from Oman and had not passed through the strait prices began rising, turning positive before midday.
Brent rose 11.27% from its finish on March 6 while WTI gained 8% from its value a week ago.
International Response to Oil Market Disruption
U.S. and Global Measures
As part of efforts to lower fuel prices to consumers in an election year, the U.S. issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was a step to stabilise global energy markets roiled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
This will affect 100 million barrels of Russian crude, equal to almost a day's worth of global output, according to Russia's presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
"Russian oil was already going to buyers; this is not bringing additional barrels to the market but it does reduce some friction," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.
"The market is starting to get very concerned that this (war) is going to last longer. The big fear is that we have severe damage to oil infrastructure, which would be a lasting loss of supply."
OIL TO BE RELEASED FROM STOCKPILES
The announcement on Russian oil came a day after the U.S. Energy Department said Washington would release 172 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help curb skyrocketing oil prices.
That plan was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, which has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, including the U.S. contribution.
Escalating Middle East Risks
Regional Tensions and Supply Threats
Fleeting relief sparked by the IEA release, however, was shattered by a re-escalation of Middle East risks, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would fight on, and keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel.
Attacks and Disruptions
Two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters were struck by explosives-laden Iranian boats, Iraqi security officials said on Thursday. An Iraqi official told state media the country's oil ports have completely stopped operations.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States stood to make significant money from oil prices, driven higher by the war with Iran. But stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was far more important, he said.
Market Forecasts and Future Outlook
Both benchmark prices surged more than 9% on Thursday and hit their highest levels since August 2022.
Goldman Sachs predicted on Friday that Brent oil would average more than $100 a barrel in March and $85 in April, as energy prices remain volatile due to the Iran war, damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent is better supported than WTI because Europe is more susceptible to energy security issues, while the U.S. is able to stave off its exposure due to its domestic output, said Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG.
Potential for Prolonged Disruption
In another sign the disruptions may drag on, sources told Reuters that Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in the strait, a move that is likely to complicate the reopening of the critical waterway.
(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houaton, Anna Hirtenstein in London, Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore, Sam Li and Lewis Jackson in Beijing; Editing by Pooja Desai, Susan Fenton, Aidan Lewis and Diane Craft)
