By Katya Golubkova TOKYO, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell slightly on Wednesday as talks between the United States and Iran progressed, raising hopes for a de-escalation of bilateral tensions and
Oil Jumps 4% on Iran–U.S. Tensions as Russia–Ukraine Talks Stall
By Georgina McCartney and Siddharth Cavale
Oil Market Rally and Geopolitical Drivers
HOUSTON, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up by more than 4% on Wednesday as traders priced in potential supply disruptions amid concerns of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and after talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva ended without a breakthrough.
Heating Oil Moves
Also, U.S. heating oil futures jumped around 5%.
Price Action: Brent and WTI
Brent crude futures settled up $2.93, or 4.35%, at $70.35 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up $2.86, or 4.59%, to $65.19. Both contracts posted their highest settlements since January 30, rebounding a day after plumbing two-week lows.
Late-Session Surge on Alerts
Both contracts rallied late, up by more than $3 toward the end of the session on media reports that Israel had raised its alert level on increased indications of a possible attack on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, according to Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.
Analyst Commentary
"The big moves in oil prices today are being solely driven by geopolitics, they continue to react to headlines with respect to meetings between the U.S. and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
"The oil market is pricing in additional risk of a supply disruption," he added.
Signals from Nuclear Talks
On Tuesday, oil fell after Iran's foreign minister said Tehran and Washington had reached an understanding on guiding principles of nuclear talks. On Wednesday, the Iranian semi-official Fars news agency reported that Iran and Russia will conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean on Thursday.
Strait of Hormuz Risks
As talks began on Tuesday, Iranian state media said Iran was temporarily shutting parts of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil supply route, due to security precautions while its elite Revolutionary Guards conducted military drills there. Later, state media said the strait had been shut for a few hours, without making clear if it had fully reopened.
"Iran knows (U.S. President Donald) Trump's negotiation tactics now. It also knows that a disruption in oil exports out of the Strait of Hormuz and a rally in oil prices to $150 per barrel is the very last thing Trump wants," said SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop in a note. "Iran has time to negotiate in calmness."
Strike Probability Estimates
Political consultancy Eurasia Group said in a Tuesday note to clients that it thinks there is a 65% probability of U.S. military strikes against Iran by the end of April.
"Everyone is monitoring the amount of military equipment that is flooding the region from the U.S., giving an indication that hostilities are imminent," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.
Russia–Ukraine Talks Outcome
RUSSIA, UKRAINE PEACE TALKS END WITHOUT BREAKTHROUGH
Two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended on Wednesday without a breakthrough, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accusing Moscow of stalling U.S.-mediated efforts to end the four-year-old war.
Trump has repeatedly pressured Ukraine to agree to a deal that could mean painful concessions, as Russian forces have pounded its power grid and advanced on the battlefield.
Zelenskiy described the talks as "difficult."
"There has been a renewed effort to clamp down on Russian exports, so if these talks do go off the rails as Zelenskiy suggested they are, then we could finally see a material drop in the amount of Russian exports headed to the global market, and that is obviously supportive," said Again Capital's Kilduff.
What to Watch: Inventories
Traders will monitor U.S. oil inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute, due on Wednesday, and from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday. Analysts polled by Reuters expect U.S. crude stockpiles likely rose last week.
(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, Siddharth Cavale in New York, Stephanie Kelly and Alex Lawler in London, Mohi Narayan in New Delhi and Katya Golubkova in Tokyo; Editing by Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)
