March 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a third day on Tuesday as the widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply
Oil prices jump nearly 5%, settle at highest since January 2025 on Middle East conflict
Oil Market Reaction to Middle East Conflict
By Siddharth Cavale and Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up 4.7% on Tuesday, the highest since January 2025, as U.S.-Israel battles with Iran intensified, disrupting energy shipments from the Middle East and stoking fears of a longer conflict.
Price Movements and Settlement Data
Brent futures settled up $3.66, or up 4.7%, at $81.40 a barrel, its highest settlement since January 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $3.33, or 4.7%, at $74.56, the highest settlement since June.
Brent is up 12% since the conflict began on Saturday.
Escalation of Conflict and Regional Impact
Israeli and U.S. forces pounded targets across Iran on Tuesday, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes around the Gulf as the conflict spread to Lebanon.
OPEC Production Cuts
Iraq, No. 2 crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries behind Saudi Arabia, cut production by nearly 1.5 million barrels a day. The cuts could more than double within days as the country runs out of storage space for crude it cannot export due to the crisis.
Strait of Hormuz and Shipping Disruptions
Iran has responded with strikes against regional energy infrastructure and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes.
Tankers and container ships are avoiding the strait after insurers cancelled coverage for vessels and global oil and gas shipping rates soared. Concerns increased after Iranian media reported on Monday that Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass through the strait.
"Iran’s retaliation has been broader than its previous, mostly symbolic measures, and its approach has resulted in several regional flashpoints posing real risk to supply," analysts at Standard Chartered wrote in a note.
U.S. and Israeli Military Response
President Donald Trump said U.S. and Israeli air attacks were projected to last four to five weeks but could go on longer. Trump said the U.S. was considering oil tanker insurance support.
Brent hit a session high of $85.12, its highest since July 2024. It pared gains after Trump said the war effort has eliminated many Iranian naval and air targets. "Just about everything has been knocked out," he said, predicting Tehran will eventually lose its capability to lob missiles.
"Trump said Iran is not going to keep this fight up for longer...so the market is thinking there might be a quicker resolution than previously feared," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.
Global Supply Chain Adjustments
Looking for Other Suppliers
India and Indonesia said they were seeking alternative energy supplies. In China, some refineries were shutting or bringing maintenance plans forward.
Since the attacks began, Qatar has stopped liquefied natural gas production, Israel has stopped production at some gas fields and Saudi Arabia shut its biggest refinery.
Saudi Aramco’s Response
Saudi oil giant Aramco is attempting to reroute some crude exports to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz where the risk of attacks has slowed shipping to a near halt, sources said.
Refined Products and Inventory Data
Gasoline and Diesel
U.S. diesel futures jumped about 10% to their highest since October 2023. U.S. gasoline futures climbed nearly 4% to $2.46 a gallon, their highest since July 2024. Crack spreads, which measure refining profit margins, soared to their highest since 2023.
In global natural gas markets, benchmark Dutch contracts, British gas prices and European and Asian LNG prices all jumped.
Brent-WTI Spread and U.S. Exports
The premium of Brent over WTI widened to nearly $8 a barrel, its highest since November 2022. Analysts have said that when this premium rises over $4, it can support U.S. crude exports.
U.S. Inventory Reports
U.S. crude and distillate stocks rose while gasoline inventories fell last week, according to market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 5.6 million in the week ended February 27, higher than the 2.3 million barrels analysts projected energy firms added to storage. [EIA/S] [API/S]
Wednesday will bring official U.S. oil inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration..
(Reporting by Siddharth Cavale and Scott DiSavino in New York, Shadia Nasralla in LondonAdditional reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York, Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in SingaporeEditing by David Goodman and David Gregorio)
