By Anmol Choubey March 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose in early trade on Tuesday on supply fears, as Iran denied it had held talks with the United States to end the war in the Gulf, contradicting
Oil pares gains after reports of US plan aimed at ending the Middle East war
Market Reaction and Diplomatic Developments
By Nicole Jao
Oil Price Volatility Amid US-Iran Mediation Reports
NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - Oil pared gains on Tuesday in volatile post-settlement trading, after rallying nearly 5% earlier in the session, on reports that the U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East.
Reuters confirmed the reports, citing a source familiar with the matter. The New York Times, citing two officials, had said the plan was delivered by way of Pakistan.
Ceasefire Mechanism and Envoy Involvement
Israel's Channel 12, which was first to report the plan, said a one-month ceasefire will be announced according to a mechanism that U.S. Middle East envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working on.
Oil Price Movements and Trading Data
Prior to the reports, Brent futures settled up $4.55, or 4.55%, at $104.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed $4.22, or 4.79%, to $92.35.
In post-settlement trading, Brent pared earlier gains, up 13 cents, or 0.13%, from the previous session at $100.07 at 4:59 p.m. ET (2259 GMT). WTI was up 29 cents, or 0.33%, at $88.41.
Diplomatic Efforts and Mixed Signals
Pakistan's Mediation Offer
Pakistan's prime minister said on Tuesday he was willing to host talks between the U.S. and Iran on ending the war in the Gulf.
US-Iran Negotiation Dynamics
The offer came a day after Trump ordered a five-day delay of attacks on Iran's power plants, saying the U.S. had talks with unnamed Iranian officials that produced "major points of agreement," sending crude futures down more than 10%.
Iran on Monday denied it had engaged in negotiations with the United States.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Views
"We're definitely getting mixed signals," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "I think the market is pricing in worries that these talks aren't going to go well and that the war is going to continue."
Iran's negotiating posture has hardened since the war began, sources told Reuters, adding it would demand significant concessions from the U.S. if mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations.
Supply Disruption and Global Oil Markets
Extent of Supply Disruption
SUPPLY DISRUPTION PERSISTS
Both benchmarks had gained nearly 5% earlier on Tuesday as crude oil supply disruption persisted.
The war has all but halted shipments of about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, causing what the International Energy Agency has called the biggest-ever oil supply disruption.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping and Market Impact
Iran told International Maritime Organization member states that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday after oil futures settled. Brent and WTI were little changed from settlement after the report.
"The reality on the ground is unchanged," said Nikos Tzabouras, analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com. "The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and supply disruptions linger, tightening the market."
Geopolitical Tensions and Price Forecasts
Iran sent waves of missiles into Israel on Tuesday. Three senior Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump appeared determined to reach a deal, but that they thought it highly unlikely Iran would agree to U.S. demands in any new round of negotiations.
"The likelihood of temporary shipping disruptions extending into long-term supply dislocations increases with each day that hostilities persist. We've seen global energy forecasts recalibrating from supply gluts into potential deficits," said Kenny Zhu, research analyst at Global X.
If the strait remains effectively shut until the end of April, Brent could reach $150 a barrel, Macquarie said. That would exceed the all-time high of $147 in 2008.
Recent Attacks on Energy Infrastructure
In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were hit in the Iranian city of Isfahan, while a projectile struck a gas pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr, Iran's Fars news agency reported.
(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York and Alex Lawler in London; Additional reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Andrei Khalip, Arun Koyyur, Joe Bavier; Rod Nickel and Edmund Klamann)
