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Poll shows main rival of French far-right in presidential election could lose mayor seat

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on February 26, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: April 2, 2026

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Poll shows main rival of French far-right in presidential election could lose mayor seat
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PARIS, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe could lose his seat as mayor of the port city of Le Havre in municipal elections next month, an opinion poll showed, dealing a

Poll Finds Ex-PM Edouard Philippe Could Lose Le Havre Mayor Seat Next Month

Le Havre Mayoral Poll and 2027 Implications

PARIS, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe could lose his seat as mayor of the port city of Le Havre in municipal elections next month, an opinion poll showed, dealing a potential blow to his presidential ambitions for 2027.

The centrist Philippe, who served as President Emmanuel Macron's premier until 2020, was until now the best-placed mainstream candidate to beat the far-right National Rally candidate in next year's presidential election, according to most opinion polls. 

First-Round vs Runoff Numbers

OpinionWay/Hexagone Results

According to the OpinionWay poll for the Hexagone Institute, released late on Wednesday, Philippe would come first with 37% in the first round of the mayoral vote, but would ultimately be edged out by Communist candidate Jean-Paul Lecoq in the second round.

Philippe himself said recently defeat in the municipal election would hurt his chances for the presidential poll.

Philippe on Potential Defeat

"If I fail to convince the people of Le Havre, despite the fact I have been their mayor since 2010 and they know me well..., I wouldn't be in a good position to convince the French," he told LCI television in December. 

National Matchups Against Far Right

Philippe has consistently polled as the best-placed candidate to beat a far-right candidate, whether it was Marine Le Pen or her protege Jordan Bardella, even if recent polls have been very tight.

Previous Ifop and Odoxa Polls

In an Ifop poll last April, he was neck-and-neck with Bardella at 50% each. One Odoxa poll last November even showed Bardella winning with 53%.

Reporting and Editing Credits

(Reporting by Michel Rose; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Key Takeaways

  • OpinionWay for Hexagone shows Philippe at 37% in round one but narrowly losing a runoff to Jean‑Paul Lecoq, with the RN candidate near 18%. (fr.news.yahoo.com)
  • Philippe has tied his 2027 presidential credibility to winning Le Havre; a defeat would weaken his bid. (fr.news.yahoo.com)
  • Earlier national polling had Philippe competitive with RN: an Ifop/Hexagone survey in April 2025 showed a 50–50 tie versus Bardella. (observatoire-hexagone.org)
  • By November 2025, Odoxa polling showed Bardella leading Philippe 53%–47% in a hypothetical runoff, signaling momentum for RN. (odoxa.fr)
  • France’s municipal elections are scheduled for March 15 and 22, 2026, making Le Havre a key early test. (service-public.gouv.fr)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main topic?
A new OpinionWay poll indicates Edouard Philippe may win the first round for Le Havre mayor but could lose a runoff to Communist rival Jean‑Paul Lecoq, raising questions about his 2027 bid. ([fr.news.yahoo.com](https://fr.news.yahoo.com/news/municipales-2026-sondage-donne-edouard-181146742.html/?utm_source=openai))
Who conducted the poll and what are the key numbers?
OpinionWay for the Hexagone Institute: round one Philippe 37%, Lecoq 35%, RN 18%; in a three-way runoff Lecoq 42%, Philippe 40%, RN 18%. ([fr.news.yahoo.com](https://fr.news.yahoo.com/news/municipales-2026-sondage-donne-edouard-181146742.html/?utm_source=openai))
How does this affect the 2027 presidential race?
Philippe has polled as a leading centrist against RN, including a 50–50 tie with Bardella in April 2025, but Odoxa’s Nov 2025 survey showed Bardella ahead 53–47, suggesting headwinds for Philippe. ([observatoire-hexagone.org](https://observatoire-hexagone.org/index.php/2025/05/05/le-rn-en-force-face-a-la-gauche-desunie-la-grande-enquete-ifop-pour-hexagone/?utm_source=openai))

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