By Elena Fabrichnaya MOSCOW, March 16 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 15% at a meeting on March 20 as a spike in global oil
Russian Central Bank Seen Cutting Rate 50bps Amid Oil Price Surge, Iran War
Central Bank Rate Decision and Economic Impact
By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW, March 16 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 15% at a meeting on March 20 as a spike in global oil prices after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran creates new uncertainty, a Reuters poll of 23 analysts showed on Monday.
Global oil prices have surged by 40% since the attacks began, climbing to their highest since 2022, while the U.S. has also lifted sanctions on some Russian oil. Both factors have made Russia one of the biggest beneficiaries of the conflict.
Policy Response and Austerity Measures
However, Russian policymakers, who drafted a package of austerity measures just before the Iran war started to counter the impact of falling oil prices and prevent the country's fiscal reserve fund from being depleted, are yet to formulate their response.
Expert Commentary on Austerity
"This need (for austerity measures), which arose when oil prices fell below $45 per barrel in December-February, may quietly disappear along with the cause that generated it," said Maxim Petronevich from Rosselkhozbank.
All 23 analysts polled said they believe the central bank will cut by 50 basis points.
Proinflationary Risks and Economic Outlook
Interest Rate Trends and Market Signals
The central bank has been cutting its key rate since last June but, currently at 15.5%, it is still above the 12% level which businesses think could allow economic growth to speed up.
"The central bank may adjust its signal regarding future decisions to be more cautious in light of the sharp rise in global energy prices," said Igor Rapokhin, senior debt market strategist at SberCIB.
Oil Price Spike and Fiscal Policy
The central bank is expected to comment both on the spike in oil prices and on the planned austerity package, which should include a cut in the so-called cut-off price of oil above which the energy revenues should flow into the reserve fund.
The Russian government is also preparing a possible 10% cut to all "non-sensitive" spending in this year's budget, sources told Reuters last week, but the final decision will hinge on the sustainability of the oil price rise triggered by the Iran war.
Export Markets and Inflationary Pressures
Petronevich said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have a positive impact on global prices for a wide range of Russian export goods, including oil, gas, coal, aluminium, fertilizers and wheat.
Alfa Bank's analysts added that even a short-term spike in prices for Russian exports could slow the cooling down of the labour market, a process closely watched by the central bank.
They also warned of "a wave of proinflationary risks" due to the conflict. Russian inflation slowed to 0.7% in February after a 1.6% jump in January due to a hike in value-added tax at the start of the year.
(Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
