March 17 (Reuters) - Russia's federal budget proceeds from taxes on oil and gas are expected to drop by 52% in March to 520 billion roubles ($6.4 billion) from the same month in 2025 due to weaker oil
Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues Projected to Drop 52% in March 2026
Analysis of Russia's Oil and Gas Revenue Trends
March 2026 Revenue Forecast
March 17 (Reuters) - Russia's federal budget proceeds from taxes on oil and gas are expected to drop by 52% in March to 520 billion roubles ($6.4 billion) from the same month in 2025 due to weaker oil prices and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Tuesday.
Impact of Global Oil Prices and Geopolitical Events
Effect of U.S.-Israeli War on Iran
The rise in international oil prices resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is yet to be felt for Russia as current budget revenues are calculated based on the previous month. Global oil prices are up around 40% since the start of the conflict on February 28.
Significance of Oil and Gas Revenue for Russia
Oil and gas revenue accounts for around a quarter of Russia's federal budget proceeds and are critical to funding Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine.
Quarterly and Annual Revenue Comparisons
January-to-March Revenue Figures
Russia's oil and gas revenues over the January-to-March period are expected to total 1.34 trillion roubles, down from 2.64 trillion roubles in the first three months of 2025.
Calculation Methodology
Reuters calculations are based on oil and gas production data, refining, and supplies on domestic and international markets.
Official Data and Budget Projections
Upcoming Finance Ministry Report
The finance ministry will publish its data on the budget's oil and gas revenues on April 3.
Federal Budget Assumptions for 2026
The federal budget assumes the collection of 8.918 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales this year. Total budget revenues for 2026 are seen at 40.283 trillion roubles.
Historical Context
Last year, Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas dropped 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles, the lowest level since 2020.
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Joe Bavier)
