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Stagflation in EU is worst scenario, we are not yet there -Eurogroup chair

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on April 14, 2026

1 min read

· Last updated: April 15, 2026

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Stagflation in EU is worst scenario, we are not yet there -Eurogroup chair
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WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - Stagflation in Europe as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is the worst case scenario and we are not yet there, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers

Eurogroup Chair: Stagflation in Europe Is Worst Scenario But Not There Yet

Potential Economic Impact of U.S.-Israeli War on Iran

Current Assessment by Eurogroup Chair

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - Stagflation in Europe as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is the worst case scenario and we are not yet there, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers Kyriakos Pierrakakis said on Tuesday.

European Commission Warnings

Risks from Closure of the Strait of Hormuz

The European Commission has warned that the surge in oil, gas and fertiliser prices as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz posed a risk of stagflation in Europe.

Statements from the Semafor Conference

Energy Price Surge and Economic Growth

Duration of Strait Closure as a Key Factor

Speaking at the Semafor conference in Washington Pierrakakis said the energy price surge would reduce economic growth and increase inflation but its exact impact would depend on how long the Strtit of Hormuz would remain closed for trade.

"We're not yet there," he said on the stagflation scenario.

(Reporting by Jan Strupczewski)

Key Takeaways

  • Pierrakakis warned at a Semafor conference that while energy price spikes will slow growth and lift inflation, Europe has not yet tipped into stagflation, though risks are mounting. (€)
  • The European Commission and EU officials—including Commissioner Dombrovskis—caution that prolonged disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure could shave up to 0.6 percentage points off EU growth and push inflation above 3%. (€)
  • Energy markets face continued volatility: gas prices in Europe surged up to 130% in stress‑test scenarios, real‑world outages like the Qatar LNG halt boosted prices 40–50%, and Europe’s stored gas reserves are at decade lows. (€)

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the Eurogroup chair say about stagflation in Europe?
The Eurogroup chair stated that stagflation is the worst scenario for the EU, but Europe is not yet experiencing it.
What factors are contributing to stagflation risks in Europe?
Surging oil, gas, and fertiliser prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased the risk of stagflation.
How could the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affect the EU economy?
The closure could reduce economic growth and increase inflation depending on how long trade remains disrupted.
Who raised concerns about stagflation in the EU?
The European Commission and the Eurogroup chair, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, highlighted the risks.
Has stagflation occurred in the European Union yet?
According to the Eurogroup chair, stagflation has not yet occurred in the EU.

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