Jan 20 - French oil major TotalEnergies expects lower oil and liquefied natural gas sales in the fourth quarter of 2025, but stronger downstream results, as higher margins on refining fuels partially
TotalEnergies Anticipates Steady Q4 Results Amid Refining Margin Gains
TotalEnergies Q4 Financial Outlook
By America Hernandez
Impact of Refining Margins
Jan 20 - TotalEnergies expects fourth-quarter 2025 results to be in line with the previous year, as higher fuel refining margins and cash from selling stakes in renewable assets offset weaker oil and liquefied natural gas prices.
Comparison with Industry Peers
"The cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive upstream production growth and continued improvement of downstream results," it said in a trading statement.
LNG Market Challenges
Shares were up 0.73% at 56.54 euros in morning trading, while the broader European energy sector fell 1.2%.
RESULTS BUCK MAJORS' GENERAL DECLINING TREND
Total's fourth-quarter bucked a general declining trend among majors, and "the company was able to capture the short term refining strength, while the new barrels in the upstream appear to be driving cash flow accretion," RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria wrote in an investor note.
"It is notable that year-on-year, Total's fourth-quarter cash flow from operations is flat on RBC's estimates, versus Shell down 19% over the same period," he said.
Earlier this month, BP and Shell flagged weak oil trading results, as Brent crude prices dropped to $63.73 a barrel in October-to-December due to oversupply fears.
SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL HELP REFINING MARGINS
Total's European refining margin marker rose to $85.7 per metric ton in the fourth quarter, up 231% from a year earlier.
In October, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said he expected refining margins in Europe to rise due to U.S. sanctions and EU restrictions on Russian energy.
Downstream marketing and services results are expected to be up about 5% year-on-year.
TotalEnergies said it boosted upstream oil and gas volumes to compensate for lower prices, leading to 5% year-on-year production growth. As a result, the decline in upstream results will be $6 per barrel, rather than the actual $11-per-barrel drop in crude prices.
Integrated LNG results will be in line with the third quarter of 2025 — a 40% drop year-on-year.
That's partially due to LNG prices falling 18% year-on-year and planned maintenance at the Australian Ichthys LNG project, which came back online in November.
Integrated power cash flow is expected to have risen in the fourth quarter, due to several minority stakes in renewable assets being sold, leading the segment to achieve annual cash flow of $2.5 billion.
(Reporting by Dimitri Rhodes in Gdansk, Editing by Louise Heavens and Bernadette Baum)
