By America Hernandez PARIS, April 16 - TotalEnergies expects a significant rise in first-quarter earnings from upstream production and oil sales due to higher prices caused by the war in Iran, even as
TotalEnergies flags earnings boost from strong trading and oil price spike
First-Quarter Performance and Market Impact
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By America Hernandez
Overview of Earnings and Oil Price Surge
PARIS, April 16 - TotalEnergies expects a significant increase in first-quarter earnings thanks to a strong trading performance and higher oil prices, which offset the loss of production due to the Iran war, it said in a trading statement on Thursday.
Benchmark Brent crude futures climbed to multi‑year highs near $120 a barrel after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, followed by Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its attacks on Gulf neighbours. The Iranian strikes damaged liquefied natural gas facilities in Qatar supplying Total and Saudi Arabia's SATORP refinery co-owned by the French energy company.
Analyst Reactions and Market Expectations
JPMorgan analysts said Total's trading statement was constructive as the company showed its diversified assets enabled it to weather the war despite being the most exposed among the energy majors to the Middle East. They expect upward revisions to Total's earnings and cash flow guidance when it reports first-quarter results on April 29.
Total's share price was down 0.5% at 76.32 euros by 1040 GMT, after falling as much as 3.2% earlier in the day. The stock is up around 37% year-to-date.
Production and Upstream Performance
Despite losing output of about 100,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day in the Middle East, additional production in other regions helped keep Total's overall production flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. That led to a significant rise in upstream income due to higher prices, Total said.
Trading Activities and Downstream Results
Spotlight on Trading Activities
TRADING ACTIVITIES IN SPOTLIGHT
Downstream results also increased due to refineries running above 90% and "strong performance from crude oil and petroleum product trading activities in March", Total said.
March Trading Moves and Market Impact
In March Total was the sole buyer of Middle East crude as the Iran conflict drastically cut supply, snapping up around 70 Oman and Murban cargoes, or about 35 million barrels, which helped send the benchmark Dubai price to a record high of nearly $170 per barrel.
The Financial Times, citing sources, reported that Total made more than $1 billion on the trade by using financial instruments such as futures, options and swaps to bet on rising prices.
Company Commentary on Trading Risks
"In the current context, with around 15% of our global production currently shut in beyond the Strait of Hormuz, TotalEnergies must secure supply, both for its own needs and for those of its customers," a Total spokesperson said on Thursday regarding the March trades.
"It is also important to recall that trading activities are not risk-free and can generate losses as well, particularly in such highly volatile environments. These activities should therefore be assessed across the portfolio as a whole and over the long term, rather than through the lens of an isolated transaction," the press officer added.
LNG and Refining Margins
Strong trading also boosted its LNG earnings, which the company expects to come in significantly higher than the fourth quarter's $922 million.
Total's upbeat first-quarter outlook broadly mirrors those of British rivals BP and Shell, which signaled bumper profits from trading, an area where European majors are more active than U.S. competitors.
Chevron and Exxon said higher prices boosted upstream earnings, but hit their downstream business due to financial hedging transactions undertaken around cargoes that could not be delivered due to the Strait of Hormuz's closure.
Total's European refining fuel margin was $85.70 per ton in the quarter, flat compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.
Reporting and Editorial Credits
(Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris, Alessandro Parodi and Mateusz Rabiega in Gdansk; Editing by Louise Heavens, Kim Coghill and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
