ORLANDO, Florida, March 2 (Reuters) - Oil and gas prices clocked their biggest rise in years, while bonds and most stock markets fell on Monday, after the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend
Oil Prices and Market Volatility Surge After U.S.-Israeli Strike on Iran
Market Reactions and Key Developments
ORLANDO, Florida, March 2 (Reuters) - Oil and gas prices clocked their biggest rise in years, while bonds and most stock markets fell on Monday, after the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend triggered waves of volatility across world markets. The big - and surprising - exception was Wall Street.
The Treasuries Investor Dilemma
In my column today I look at the dilemma facing Treasuries investors - do they buy bonds on rising geopolitical instability and the hit to growth from surging oil prices, or sell on inflation fears? So far, inflation worries appear to be the driving force.
Further Reading on Market Events
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
- Iran vows to attack any ship trying to pass through Strait of Hormuz
- Iran conflict widens to Lebanon, Kuwait mistakenly shoots down U.S. jets
- Investors wrestle with Middle East curve ball scenarios
- Swiss National Bank raises willingness to counter franc's "excessive" appreciation
- U.S. manufacturing activity steady, factory gate inflation surges
Today's Key Market Moves
Stock Market Performance
- STOCKS: Almost every major Asian and European index falls, by around 1-3%. The main exceptions are China and U.S. indices - the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 rally.
- SECTORS/SHARES: Four of S&P 500's 11 sectors rise: tech, industrials +1%; energy +2%. Consumer staples, discretionaries and healthcare -1% or more. Northrop Grumman, Marathon Petroleum +6%, AES -17%, Norwegian Cruise Line -10%.
Currency and Bond Markets
- FX: Dollar has best day since July. JPY slumps 1%, CHF falls even more on SNB intervention threat. Recent CNY rally shudders to halt. Bitcoin +5%.
- BONDS: U.S. yields leap as much as 11 bps at the short end, bear-flattening the curve.
Commodities and Metals
- COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil eventually settles +6%, European LNG +40% after Qatar halts production. Average U.S. gasoline prices top $3/gallon. Gold +1%, silver -4%.
Today's Talking Points
High Energy Prices
Supply disruption fears send oil and other energy prices soaring. Oil eases off earlier highs but still ends the trading day up 6%, pushing the year-on-year price change firmly into positive territory. This is a significant change for inflation models.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Spike
The biggest rise was in liquefied natural gas, after Qatar said it has halted production. Benchmark European LNG rocketed more than 50% before trimming those gains to 40%, still the biggest one-day rise since Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago.
Swiss Franc and Safe Haven Currencies
Given the slump in world stocks, spike in market volatility and surge in geopolitical risk, one might have expected the Swiss franc to appreciate on Monday. After all, it is the world's safest "safe haven" currency, right?
SNB Intervention
But the franc tumbled more than 1% against the dollar, its biggest fall since May, fueling speculation the SNB intervened to counter the flood of safe-haven buying. For its part, the SNB said in a statement it was prepared to do just that in order to prevent "excessive" appreciation of the franc. The signs are, it did.
Wall Street Resilience or Complacency?
After Asian and European stocks fell 1-3% on Monday, Wall Street opened lower too. But it soon recovered, and ended the day narrowly mixed - the Dow dipped 0.15%, the S&P 500 added 0.04%, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.4% and the Russell 2000 small caps index jumped 0.9%.
Global Market Context
Given the severity of events in the Middle East, and their impact on energy prices and bond yields, that's remarkable. It could even be argued that the 1-3% declines in Asia and Europe were muted moves. But closing higher? Let's see how the rest of the week pans out.
What Could Move Markets Tomorrow?
- Developments in the Middle East, especially regarding energy supply disruptions
- Australia current account (Q4)
- Japan unemployment (January)
- Euro zone inflation (February, flash estimate)
- UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to announce new economic forecasts in budget update
- Brazil GDP (Q4)
- U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include New York Fed President John Williams, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
Additional Information
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
