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Trump warns of major war escalation if Iran peace process fails

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on April 9, 2026

5 min read

· Last updated: April 9, 2026

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Trump warns of major war escalation if Iran peace process fails
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WASHINGTON/DUBAI/TEL AVIV, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to retain military assets in the Middle East until a peace deal with Iran is reached and warned of a major escalation

Israel seeks Lebanon talks after bombardments threaten Iran truce

By Parisa Hafezi, Maya Gebeily, Maayan Lubell and Ariba Shahid

Escalating Conflict and Diplomatic Efforts

JERUSALEM/BEIRUT/ISLAMABAD, April 9 (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday he is seeking direct talks with Beirut, a day after the worst bombardment of the war killed more than 300 people in Lebanon and placed Donald Trump's U.S.-Iran ceasefire in jeopardy.

The U.S. president announced a ceasefire in the six-week-old Iran conflict late on Tuesday, just hours before a deadline after which he threatened to destroy Iran's entire civilisation.

In Pakistan, authorities were preparing for the first round of U.S.-Iran talks, locking down parts of the capital Islamabad.

Strait of Hormuz Blockade and Global Impact

But there was no sign Iran was lifting its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the worst-ever disruption to global energy supplies. It cited Israel's ongoing attacks on Lebanon as a key sticking point.

Iran's Defiant Stance

In a defiant statement, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would be "resolute in avenging" the deaths of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the country's "martyrs", and "will take management of the Strait of Hormuz into a new phase."

The statement, attributed to Khamenei, was read on state TV. He has not been seen in public since he took over from his father, who was killed on the first day of the war.

"We will certainly not leave unpunished the criminal aggressors who attacked our country. We will undoubtedly demand compensation for every single damage inflicted," he said in the statement.

Ceasefire and Oil Shipments

Few Signs of Increased Traffic

FEW SIGNS OF INCREASED TRAFFIC

In the first 24 hours of the ceasefire, just a single oil products tanker and five dry bulk carriers sailed through the strait, which typically accommodated 140 ships a day before the war and accounted for a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Trump said in a social media post that oil would start flowing again, although he gave no indication of what actions the U.S. might take.

"Because of me, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON and, very quickly, you’ll see Oil start flowing, with or without the help of Iran and, to me, it makes no difference, either way," he said.

In a separate post, Trump said Iran should not charge fees to tankers going through the strait. "They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now," he said.

Israel-Lebanon Negotiations

Initiating Peace Talks

Netanyahu, whose government rebuffed an offer for direct talks with Lebanon last month, said in a statement he had given instructions to start peace talks as soon as possible, which would include disarming Iran-aligned armed group Hezbollah.

"The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon," he said.

An hour before Netanyahu's statement, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said he was working on a diplomatic track that was starting to be seen "positively" by international actors.

A senior Lebanese official told Reuters Lebanon had spent the last day pushing for a temporary ceasefire to allow for broader talks with Israel, describing the effort as a "separate track but the same model" as the U.S.-Iran truce.

International Mediation and Ceasefire Terms

Israel was preparing to scale down its attacks in Lebanon, a senior Israeli official said on Thursday.

Another Israeli official said talks with Lebanon were expected to begin in Washington next week. A U.S. State Department official confirmed the U.S. would host next week's meeting to "discuss ongoing ceasefire negotiations."

Under a November 2024 U.S.-brokered ceasefire accord that halted more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon agreed that only state security forces should bear arms, which means Hezbollah must be fully disarmed.

But an attempt the following year by the Lebanese army to disarm the group fell short, Israel said.

Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad said in a statement on Thursday that the group rejected direct negotiations with Israel and the Lebanese government should demand a ceasefire as a precondition to further steps.

The U.S. and Israel have said the latest ceasefire does not include Lebanon, which Israel invaded last month - in parallel with the war on Iran - to root out Hezbollah.

But Iran and Pakistan, which acted as mediator, say Lebanon was explicitly part of the deal. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, expected to head the Iranian delegation opposite U.S. Vice President JD Vance, tweeted that Lebanon and the rest of Iran's "axis" of regional allies were inseparable parts of any ceasefire.

A Pakistani source said Pakistan was working on ceasefires for Lebanon as well as Yemen, where Israel has also hit Iran-aligned forces.

Aftermath of Bombardments in Lebanon

Lebanon Declares Day of Mourning

LEBANON DECLARES DAY OF MOURNING

Earlier on Thursday, Israel kept up its bombing of Beirut's southern suburbs and other parts of the country, Lebanese state media said.

Hezbollah announced at least 20 military operations on Thursday, saying it had targeted Israeli vehicles on Lebanese territory as well as firing into northern Israel.

Lebanese officials declared a day of mourning after Wednesday's attacks on heavily populated areas, which they described as a "massacre."

Humanitarian Impact

Outside Beirut's Rafik Hariri University Hospital, a stream of ambulances arrived throughout Thursday afternoon full of mangled bodies recovered from the sites of Israeli strikes the previous day.

"We're picking up body parts for the most part. It's very rare that we find entire bodies intact," said a rescue worker on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the press.

Lebanon's Health Ministry said the death toll since March 2 had risen to 1,888 dead and more than 6,000 wounded.

(Reporting by Laila Bassam, Reuters bureausWriting by Peter Graff, Sharon Singleton, Michael Martina, Rod NickelEditing by Gareth Jones, Jan Harvey, C

Key Takeaways

  • Trump vows to keep U.S. military assets in the Middle East to deter Iran and warns of ‘a bigger, stronger’ conflict if talks collapse. (lemonde.fr)
  • Oil prices surged, reflecting market anxiety over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil flows. (eia.gov)
  • Israel's intensified strikes in Lebanon and Iran’s rejection of truce terms—alongside diverging ceasefire interpretations—threaten fragile diplomacy amid peace talks in Pakistan. (apnews.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Trump say about the US military presence in the Middle East?
Trump stated US military assets will remain in the Middle East until a peace deal is reached with Iran.
How have oil prices been impacted by the Iran peace process?
Oil prices rose due to concerns over supply and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions.
What is Iran's position on the current peace talks?
Iran considers negotiations currently unreasonable due to Israeli strikes and US demands regarding its nuclear program.
How did Israel's latest actions affect the peace process?
Israel's large-scale airstrikes in Lebanon sparked concerns about the viability of the ceasefire and peace negotiations.
Why are financial markets reacting to Middle East tensions?
Financial markets are responding to increased geopolitical risks and fluctuating oil prices linked to the conflict.

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