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UBS downgrades weighting on US equities to neutral

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on February 27, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: April 2, 2026

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(Corrects paragraph 5 to say U.S. (not global) investors) SINGAPORE, Feb 27 (Reuters) - UBS said on Friday it has cut its recommended allocation to U.S. equities to neutral, as the world's biggest

UBS downgrades U.S. equities to neutral as global growth broadens

(Corrects paragraph 5 to say U.S. (not global) investors)

UBS shifts U.S. equities allocation amid broader global growth

UBS cuts recommended allocation to U.S. equities

SINGAPORE, Feb 27 (Reuters) - UBS said on Friday it has cut its recommended allocation to U.S. equities to neutral, as the world's biggest stock market risks lagging behind while growth accelerates elsewhere.

Key drivers: earnings sensitivity, valuations, diversification and dollar risks

In a note, strategists Andrew Garthwaite and Marc el Koussa cited reasons such as the relatively lower sensitivity of U.S. corporate earnings to global growth, high valuations, the trend of funds diversifying outside of the United States and downside risks to the dollar, among other things.

Operational leverage and performance in stronger global growth

"The U.S. has the lowest operational leverage of any major region and thus historically underperforms if global growth accelerates to be above 3.5%," they said.

UBS global GDP outlook for 2026

UBS forecasts global GDP to come in at 3.4% in 2026.

Investor flows: waning Big Tech returns and policy uncertainty

U.S. investors have been pulling money from the world's largest stock market, as waning Big Tech returns and chaos over domestic policymaking leaves them searching for alternatives.

Dollar weakness adds to pressure

Weakness in the dollar - which last year clocked its worst annual performance since 2017 - has been another push factor.

Marketing insights and ETF flow signals

"From our marketing in North America, it seems unambiguous that funds will go global," said the strategists.

"ETF flows show diversification is happening."

U.S. market weight remains dominant in global benchmarks

Still the U.S. market is so large that even a benchmark allocation would remain a hefty one, with U.S. stocks comprising more than 70% of the MSCI World Index of global stocks.

(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Stephen Coates)

Key Takeaways

  • UBS argues the U.S. has historically underperformed when global growth accelerates above ~3.5% because it has comparatively low “operational leverage” versus more cyclical regions; UBS sees global GDP at 3.4% in 2026. (yournews.com)
  • Flow data and ETF market commentary point to an active rotation toward non-U.S. exposure: State Street notes U.S. equity ETFs’ share of global equity flows fell in 2025 as investors sought diversification, while JPMorgan reported international equity ETFs leading U.S.-listed ETF inflows in January 2026. (ssga.com)
  • Dollar weakness is part of the backdrop: UBS’s CIO flagged the USD’s slide as tracking toward its worst year since 2017, reinforcing the case for unhedged international allocations for U.S.-based investors; separately, the MSCI World remains U.S.-heavy (often >70%), meaning “neutral” still implies a large structural U.S. weight for global benchmarkers. (ubs.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What change did UBS make to its recommended allocation to U.S. equities?
UBS cut its recommended allocation to U.S. equities to neutral.
Why does UBS think U.S. stocks could lag if global growth accelerates?
UBS said the U.S. has the lowest operational leverage of any major region and historically underperforms when global growth accelerates above 3.5%.
What reasons did UBS cite for downgrading U.S. equities?
Strategists cited relatively lower sensitivity of U.S. corporate earnings to global growth, high valuations, diversification of funds outside the U.S., and downside risks to the dollar.
How large is the U.S. share of the MSCI World Index, according to the article?
U.S. stocks comprise more than 70% of the MSCI World Index.

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